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View Full Version : Trudeau Liberals Widen Lead Over Conservatives, Poll Suggests



Prairie Dog
07-26-2014, 10:30 AM
Justin Trudeau's federal Liberals would be in majority government territory if an election were held tomorrow, a new poll suggests.

According to a survey from Forum Research released Thursday, the Liberals have widened their lead over the governing Conservatives to 16 points. Forum has the Grits at 44 per cent support, followed by Stephen Harper's Tories at 28 per cent and Thomas Mulcair's NDP at 18 per cent.

Trudeau has the highest approval rating of the main three federal leaders at 46 per cent, followed by Mulcair at 40 per cent and Harper at 33 per cent.

In a release accompanying the poll, Forum president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff pointed out that while Trudeau and Harper both poll near the same level as their parties, that is not the case for the NDP leader.

"Tom Mulcair significantly outperforms his party… by a factor of two, and that's a worrisome sign. He makes it easy to park a vote yet not commit to supporting the party in the general election," he said in the release.

Trudeau also comes out on top on the question of who would make the best prime minister, with 30 per cent backing the Liberal leader, 27 per cent supporting Harper and just 16 per cent picking Mulcair.

The poll also asked respondents to weigh in on whether or not they think Harper will call a vote before the scheduled date of October, 2015. There have been rumblings the Tories could pull the plug next spring after releasing a budget and, as reported in The Hamilton Spectator Friday, Conservatives have already nominated more than 100 candidates.

Just half of the voters surveyed think the vote will take place as scheduled with Harper as Tory leader. About 21 per cent told Forum they think Harper will resign before the next election.

The interactive voice response telephone poll surveyed 1,624 randomly selected Canadians over the age of 18 last Friday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus two per cent, 19 times out of 20.

A similar Forum poll released in June had the Grits at 39 per cent, followed by the Tories at 31 per cent, suggesting momentum rests with Trudeau's party.

Yet, the new numbers paint a different picture than results from a survey released by Abacus Data earlier this month. The Liberals also led in that poll at 34 per cent support among decided voters, followed by the Tories at 31 per cent and NDP at 23 per cent.

But HuffPost contributor Eric Grenier concluded that while the Liberal edge was holding firm, the Tories were recovering from some of their lowest points since coming to office in 2006. And with Mulcair's approval numbers rising, Grenier wrote that a "tough, three-way, regionalized race" awaits voters in 2015.

Of course, many will say the only poll that matters comes on election day.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/07/25/justin-trudeau-liberals-majority-poll_n_5620755.html

Is this something we better get used to? The left wing media telling us of the Messiah's coming.

Foxer
07-26-2014, 11:35 AM
Is this something we better get used to? The left wing media telling us of the Messiah's coming.

Up to a point - i'm sure they're not precisely 'lying'. The CPC always polls poorest right before and during summer - picks up in the fall and does well in the winter. However - the numbers don't really make sense to me. I'm looking at other polling information, and ongoing trend information, and this just isn't reflected anywhere else. The ndp just aren't down that much, the cpc is actually looking pretty solid, and the libs aren't up anywhere by anything remotely significant.

Trudeau hasn't DONE anything lately or really been visible. So.. where's this sudden massive support coming from exactly? It doesn't make sense.

I do note it's a dialer program, not live people. And i note that the people were randomly called, it wasn't from a proper call sample. They say "where appropriate' they weigh the results, but god knows what that means. I further note that the discrepancy between male and female voters for the CPC is unusually high.

I think it's july and a lot of kids and university students are out of school and answering their phones right now, and some young gals who don't really follow politics most of the time are thinking justin's picture looks cute and they're basing their comments on that. These are precisely the people who don't show up to vote.

Remember - the VAST majority of people don't follow politics very closely in between elections, and things change when it gets serious. Ask Marios in quebec, or Dix in BC, or Hudak in ontario, or Smith in alberta, etc etc.

What the polls do suggest is that the libs are doing fairly well and will put up a strong fight next year, and will likely beat the NDP unless mulcair turns things around and the CPC will have to put on a good campaign to keep the libs down. Good campaigns are what the CPC tends to be known for so i'm not terribly worried, but it does highlight the fact that we need to support them strongly in order to win. And we need a win - we need the new firearms rules to be put into place and solid before the Libs get in again, and we need to make a few more advances. We need a little more time for the CBC to wither on the vine and we need a few more civil servants who were put in by the libs to retire. We also need for the world economy to recover a little more before we go back to any 'tax and spend' gov'ts.

We'll be ok - but we do need to put up a strong fight. We need to make sure our people get out and vote in record numbers and the libs people stay at home and we have to make sure the CPC has enough money in the lead up to the election to do what it needs to in order to kick ass and take names (too late once the election starts).

atr
07-26-2014, 07:14 PM
Getting closer to the election if fairly accurate polling shows a CPC minority or less I think Harper will resign . That isn't a position he wants to go back to . Now , these polls show a Liberal edge , long before the CPC goes on offence and shows the country what kind of fool JT is and Lord help JT in any fairly moderated form if he goes up against Harper . Harper will shred him without raising his voice . Issues , I personally know of a lot of soft conservatives who aren't happy with the senate scandals , I and many other conservatives are really unhappy with the untold billion for F-35's and many conservatives as well as many leftistas aren't happy with Harper jabbing the Russian bear with a sharp stick and insulting Europeans who don't want to be cannon fodder for the USA . Perhaps Harper has calculated that the increase in the Ukranian vote for the CPC will offset those of us who don't like it . The way I see it the next election is Harpers to lose . If Harper wants to pick a war with Russia then he should set an example by giving his son a rifle and bayonet and send him to the front . I believe Foxer is right about the polls being done right now with kids answering and likely conducted during the day when conservatives are at work providing for themselves , their families and half a dozen parasites who are sitting on the couch answering poll questions on the phone .

Camo tung
07-27-2014, 11:00 AM
If you want drama, elect a drama teacher.

(would make a good CPC ad, wouldn't it!)

Gaidheal
07-27-2014, 11:06 AM
I'm actually looking forward to the debates... Once JT opens his mouth and his brain falls out he'll be done.

It won't take much to show him for what he is.

Camo tung
07-27-2014, 11:15 AM
I'm actually looking forward to the debates... Once JT opens his mouth and his brain falls out he'll be done.

It won't take much to show him for what he is.

The problem will be those same "open-minded" followers of his who can still mark an "X" on a ballot without much effort (and no critical thinking) on their part.

CanuckWR
07-27-2014, 02:53 PM
I'm actually looking forward to the debates... Once JT opens his mouth and his brain falls out he'll be done.

It won't take much to show him for what he is.

Harper will destroy Turdeau in a debate. It won't even be a contest.

Foxer
07-27-2014, 03:02 PM
Harper will destroy Turdeau in a debate. It won't even be a contest.
Harper will unlikely try very hard. He needs to look prime-ministerial. Prime ministers don't get into one on one 'debates' per se with the opposition'. While i'm quite sure he'll have some good lines, his big 'slap in the face' will be just quietly talking to the most likely raving justin and explaining things to him like he's a child. He will likely have justin stumbling trying to work him up, but by remaining calm and unflappable he'll do the most damage.

I would expect mulcair to be more of the one who really tears justin up.

CanuckWR
07-27-2014, 05:37 PM
Harper will unlikely try very hard. He needs to look prime-ministerial. Prime ministers don't get into one on one 'debates' per se with the opposition'. While i'm quite sure he'll have some good lines, his big 'slap in the face' will be just quietly talking to the most likely raving justin and explaining things to him like he's a child. He will likely have justin stumbling trying to work him up, but by remaining calm and unflappable he'll do the most damage.

I would expect mulcair to be more of the one who really tears justin up.

I agree. Worst thing is if Harper does hand him his A$$ the media (Except Sun News) isn't going to show it. Even IF Justin's handlers allow him to talk unscripted around Angry Tom and Harper, I think they know how it will go.

soulchaser
07-30-2014, 05:00 PM
Debates don't mean as much as they used to.

By all accounts Hudak won the Ontario debate.

soulchaser
07-30-2014, 05:05 PM
2nd quarter fundraising numbers should be out in a day or two.

Interested to see the Lib totals since they had nothing this quarter to artificially inflate their numbers like last quarters convention.