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View Full Version : New Ipsos: Libs 38%, CPC 31%



soulchaser
08-25-2014, 09:00 AM
New ipsos out today:

Libs 38% (up from 33% in April)
CPC 31% (down from 33% in April)
NDP 24% (unchanged from April)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6583

The big 3 provinces:
In Ontario, the Liberals (40%) hold an 8-point lead over the Tories (32%), who lead the NDP (24%).
In Quebec, the Liberals (38%) have a comfortable lead over the NDP (29%), while the Tories (17%) and Bloc (15%) are on shaky ground in la belle province.
In British Columbia, the Tories (40%) have a tenuous 4-point lead over the Liberals (36%), who are well ahead of the NDP (19%

soulchaser
08-25-2014, 09:03 AM
Typical, historical CPC summer slump?

Some contradictory findings in this poll too.

50% would support higher taxes for social programs, but 66% would rather have a tax break than new spending on social programs.

soulchaser
08-25-2014, 09:04 AM
Remember, Ipsos had Hudak leading wire to wire in Ontario.

kennymo
08-25-2014, 11:55 AM
Meh, the elections coming, Trudeau's going to have to start talking and maybe come up with an actual policy. Should be good for some laughs.

Strewth
08-25-2014, 12:01 PM
Meh, the elections coming, Trudeau's going to have to start talking and maybe come up with an actual policy. Should be good for some laughs.

One must wonder, hey? This poll claims 38% support for pot, and hair. Was it taken in downtown Vancouver?

harbl_the_cat
08-25-2014, 12:28 PM
I chose none of the above.

matty86suk
08-25-2014, 12:49 PM
Sorry, I'm voting liberal next election(watch out! Dog pile!!) I'm not a one issue voter this time around, fell for last 2 elections. Moreover the libs can't Fook up the CF more than the cons have. I joined under the libs and I don't see any difference vs the cons except moral was better under the libs. Sorry guys:( but my riding went ndp last election by a landslide so not really changing anything....

Foxer
08-25-2014, 02:54 PM
Typical, historical CPC summer slump? Probably. They always do worst in the summer and better in the fall/winter. And it's ipsos, they're just not that consistent.

The underlying fundamentals still suggest that Trudeau's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Its' very unlikely he'll be able to beat the CPC. But what is curious to me is whether or not the NDP is going to be able to make a good showing. Mulcair's numbers have just stayed flat and is that because people don't like him that much or he's not exciting? Or are they just more interested in justins' flash right now but will be more interested in mulcairs work when they get serious in the election? Quebec is going to be the major battlefield between those two and I honestly don't know how that's going to go.

Forbes/Hutton
08-25-2014, 04:02 PM
Still summer so the teacher sit home and are able to answer the phone and take the survey.

Real people with real jobs are at work when the poli-spies call.

Redo it mid-September and there will be a "shocking" reversal of JT's fortunes.

soulchaser
08-25-2014, 04:54 PM
Probably. They always do worst in the summer and better in the fall/winter. And it's ipsos, they're just not that consistent.

The underlying fundamentals still suggest that Trudeau's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Its' very unlikely he'll be able to beat the CPC. But what is curious to me is whether or not the NDP is going to be able to make a good showing. Mulcair's numbers have just stayed flat and is that because people don't like him that much or he's not exciting? Or are they just more interested in justins' flash right now but will be more interested in mulcairs work when they get serious in the election? Quebec is going to be the major battlefield between those two and I honestly don't know how that's going to go.

Well, according to EKOS' last poll, Mulcair was the preferred choice as PM. He's personally polling above his party. Ask Andrea Horwath what that means come election day. :)

And the NDP just announced their plan for national daycare

Billythreefeathers
08-25-2014, 05:34 PM
Well, according to EKOS' last poll, Mulcair was the preferred choice as PM. He's personally polling above his party. Ask Andrea Horwath what that means come election day. :)

And the NDP just announced their plan for national daycare

National daycare, those f'n NDP stole that failed idea from the Liberals,,

Hay, they could also promise a Green Energy plan, Cap & trade, Put a price on green house gasses,,

Did I miss any other sure winning pollicies for the NDP to run on

Why is it that stupid ideas are so hard to kill?

soulchaser
08-25-2014, 06:19 PM
National daycare, those f'n NDP stole that failed idea from the Liberals,,

Hay, they could also promise a Green Energy plan, Cap & trade, Put a price on green house gasses,,

Did I miss any other sure winning pollicies for the NDP to run on

Why is it that stupid ideas are so hard to kill?

There are fewer things more dangerous than a "progressive" with a bad idea.

Strewth
08-25-2014, 07:31 PM
Daycare help is fine, but creating a bureaucracy around it is not. A tax break would serve the purpose. Oh wait, we already get one.

Foxer
08-25-2014, 07:34 PM
National daycare, those f'n NDP stole that failed idea from the Liberals,,

Hay, they could also promise a Green Energy plan, Cap & trade, Put a price on green house gasses,,

Did I miss any other sure winning pollicies for the NDP to run on

Why is it that stupid ideas are so hard to kill?

Awww!!!! The Libs have run on national daycare in every election since 94!!! It just won't be a federal election without the libs running on that! :)

It's a smart move by the ndp - because the libs really have run on it constantly and they were in power for about 10 of those years and did nothing to make it happen. So the ndp can run on it and remind everyone that the reason they don't have it already is that the libs don't keep their promises and the NDP will. It'll play well in quebec too, where such programs are threatened and mulcair can just say "oh, seeing as quebec's provincial program is so good we'll just give you the money and let you keep going with it".

Nice to see mulcair thinking a little bit about his position. I suspect what he'll do in the election is speak out against the CPC, but position his people and his policies to undercut the liberals so that he goes at them hard but indirectly so he doesn't look 'mean'.

Lee Enfield
08-25-2014, 10:47 PM
What disturbs me about the numbers is how so many Canadians are so completely stupid when it comes to the reality there is NO FREE LUNCH. Guess the difference is so many who vote Lieberal or Dipper are the type that always expects handouts.

It frustrates me to no end how much I paid in income tax over the years and too many POS are always standing their with their hand out.

Foxer
08-25-2014, 11:39 PM
What disturbs me about the numbers is how so many Canadians are so completely stupid when it comes to the reality there is NO FREE LUNCH. Guess the difference is so many who vote Lieberal or Dipper are the type that always expects handouts.

It frustrates me to no end how much I paid in income tax over the years and too many POS are always standing their with their hand out.
Well i wouldn't get TOO worked up. Polls between elections (at least ones when elections are actually more than 18 months apart) tend to be popularity commentary on the leaders and the party. People are annoyed at harper for various reasons, and they like the shiny new liberal leader even tho he's done very little. In fact - it's amusing that the leader who's spent the least time in the house and done the least number of things is the most popular - so it might just be a commentary on people's opinion of politicians in general :)

We'll see what happens in an actual election but remember that the BC ndp was 45 percent to 36 for the libs heading into the election, and had polled even higher the year before. They were defeated badly. Same is true of the wildrose, who did well in polls but just couldn't pull it together during the election. Also same for hudak.

Justin will have to run a spectacular campaign to even get into the ballpark of a minority, and while he may do ok in the first week or two, the more the public sees him in unscripted circumstances and the more they look at his lack of track record, unless he's got a truly brilliant plan for canada he will fall apart pretty quick. And honestly - there's zero evidence of any kind of decent plan. It's pretty obvious he's waiting till the last minute and seeing what's popular and what he thinks people will want to hear, and that's not the same as having a plan.

Meanwhile harper's got to realize that he's not in for a cake walk and knows he's GOT to get his voters motivated and to show up to the polls. Which is good - keeps him honest. He'll be working on a solid campaign backed by a strong track record and he's doing things for the core like the gun law changes.

I'm seeing nothing that indicates any depth to the liberal support. Like i said - a mile wide and an inch deep.

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 08:44 AM
Again, I think the 800 lbs elephant in the room is who can win over the young and first time "meh" voters.

I'm not seeing it with any of the main stream parties. Just based on superficiality alone, Harper and Mulcair are crusty old guys, and Trudeau is that stuck up high school social studies teacher everyone hates.

I think it would be very exciting if an independent or "fringe" candidate (Liberarian, Christian Heritage, heck even Communist) run an amazing online campaign and come out from the woodworks - to either sway key battleground ridings or to outright replace strong incumbents - primarily on the backs invigorated young voters.

Of course, no one in the MSM will get this right. I've worked in the tech industry for 10 years, and in the past 5 years alone some of the changes on the web are mind boggling, and unequivocally the next election will be won or loss on the internet.

Conservatives especially SHOULD know better.

Op Turf Mark Holland was entirely an online phenomenon, primarily fueled by money and activism from CGN. That could potentially happen in any riding could - especially as this election, there's between 2.5 - 3 million more, tech savvy young voters than there were last election.

http://photos-a.ak.instagram.com/hphotos-ak-xpa1/926827_733696186672272_78184201_n.jpg

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 09:15 AM
Interestingly enough, the Federal liberals have a half decent app on the Apple app store. It's actually not bad - and if they manage and market it right, it could be a VERY useful tool to reach out to young people.

It's not a small feat getting an app on the appstore

Conservative party... cyber crickets.

Foxer
08-26-2014, 09:59 AM
Interestingly enough, the Federal liberals have a half decent app on the Apple app store. It's actually not bad - and if they manage and market it right, it could be a VERY useful tool to reach out to young people.

It's not a small feat getting an app on the appstore

Conservative party... cyber crickets.

Well they're getting some help from the people who put obama in power, and social media was a big factor there.

However - obama was brilliant in front of a crowd and they had a very powerful message. Justin is not great in front of a crowd unless it's very scripted and they're going to have a problem with their message. They can't just copy cat and steal 'yes we can'.

Strewth
08-26-2014, 10:03 AM
Interestingly enough, the Federal liberals have a half decent app on the Apple app store. It's actually not bad - and if they manage and market it right, it could be a VERY useful tool to reach out to young people.

It's not a small feat getting an app on the appstore

Conservative party... cyber crickets.

What does the app do? If I take a selfie will it photoshop in Justin's hair? Is it a credit card scanner to make tax increases easier to take from me? Does it turn my smartphone screensaver into a flip-flopping waffle? Will it mansplain pressing societal issues to me? Give me bonus airmiles if I book a trip to Cuba? Step-by-step on how to roll up my sleeves?

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 10:12 AM
Well they're getting some help from the people who put obama in power, and social media was a big factor there.

However - obama was brilliant in front of a crowd and they had a very powerful message. Justin is not great in front of a crowd unless it's very scripted and they're going to have a problem with their message. They can't just copy cat and steal 'yes we can'.

I think there's a VERY good chance speaking in front of a crowd will be less important than being able to succinctly tweet this coming election.

Do you really think any 18 year old will tune into a 2 hour debate or will they more likely like, share, and re-tweet funny, witty 1 liners?


What does the app do? If I take a selfie will it photoshop in Justin's hair? Is it a credit card scanner to make tax increases easier to take from me? Does it turn my smartphone screensaver into a flip-flopping waffle? Will it mansplain pressing societal issues to me? Give me bonus airmiles if I book a trip to Cuba? Step-by-step on how to roll up my sleeves?

It mostly looks like an event calendar app with a few social media plug ins. Nothing fancy - but if they put a flappy bird or slender mini-game, I suspect they'll draw in LOTS of support from young people (I'm dead serious about that).

Foxer
08-26-2014, 10:17 AM
I think there's a VERY good chance speaking in front of a crowd will be less important than being able to succinctly tweet this coming election.

Well harbl, you're most likely not correct in this case. It may one day come to that, but people still judge based on seeing the people in action. That's why the debates are often such a critical part of the campaign.

social media can play a big role, but it will be a secondary or tertiary role for some time to come. Important, but it won't win you an election that's for sure.

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 10:20 AM
Well harbl, you're most likely not correct in this case. It may one day come to that, but people still judge based on seeing the people in action. That's why the debates are often such a critical part of the campaign.

social media can play a big role, but it will be a secondary or tertiary role for some time to come. Important, but it won't win you an election that's for sure.

As I added above - I doubt many people under 30 will tune into a 2-3 hour debate, rife with CBC propaganda or read a 50 page party platform.

More likely they'll like, share, text or re-tweet 1-liners or funny image macros and vote (or not vote) accordingly.

I'm sure you and I will see.

Strewth
08-26-2014, 10:35 AM
^I hope for the sake of an informed parliamentary democracy you're wrong, harbl. I remember walking my grandmother to her last election; she voted for Bill Bennet because "He has nice teeth, don't you think?" This really stuck with me.

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 10:38 AM
^I hope for the sake of an informed parliamentary democracy you're wrong, harbl. I remember walking my grandmother to her last election; she voted for Bill Bennet because "He has nice teeth, don't you think?" This really stuck with me.

Well the good news is I suspect the amount of accurate, substantial information that young voters can exchange via social media is immense and I suspect they can (and will be) better informed than most people who don't know how to leverage the internet and social media.

I also think it's suicidal for the Tories not to more heavily leverage social media and mobile comms. It's essentially handing the youth vote to whoever has the flashiest app, most catchy Youtube channel, or most active twitter feed and facebook page (I suspect the Liberals).

I think Knife party (remixed by Dirtyphonics) is pretty prescient (warning: some harsh language and low quality audio - but still some sick wubs) and a message almost EVERY young person knows:

"You blocked me on <various social media means>... and now... you're going to get f'd up"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MLdtFRIi54

Strewth
08-26-2014, 11:10 AM
^You are postulating that people that communicate by Twitter are going to be more well informed? And that the flashiest app will decide the election? Young people traditionally do not vote en masse in this country. I do not see the self-absorption of "social" media changing this in a positive way.

I am curious to see how your theory plays out however; the results from this election should tell the tale when the demographics are released.

harbl_the_cat
08-26-2014, 11:27 AM
^You are postulating that people that communicate by Twitter are going to be more well informed? And that the flashiest app will decide the election? Young people traditionally do not vote en masse in this country. I do not see the self-absorption of "social" media changing this in a positive way.

I am curious to see how your theory plays out however; the results from this election should tell the tale when the demographics are released.

I think the chart I posted above speaks for itself. 2015 may well be the tipping point though, since you'll notice there's a sort of hourglass shape forming between the Boomers and Millennials.

It's going to be MUCH more pronounced in a decade, as boomers start dying off from old age - but the major difference between how these two user groups interact with technology is this.

Boomers need deep, slow, sequential stimulation to process information.

Millenials need shallow, fast, concurrent stimulation to process information.

The VOLUME of information is no different between the two groups, it's just HOW they process information that is different - which is key.

To get people to behave a certain way, first they need to be informed. Ergo, if the one political party wanted to inform young people "my party is best for you - you should vote for me" they will HAVE to chose the right medium to present that information.

In 2008, only half the Millenial generation COULD vote. In 2015 - most of them will be able to, and they will make up a sizable portion of the electorate.

Beyond 2015 - as the Boomer demographic becomes smaller, it will be the Millenials who become the dominant force in politics - that's just how democracy works.

Getting them now is critical for long term success - and I don't see any political party doing so. Honestly - it wouldn't surprise me to see them all wiped from the political landscape in 20 years.

Foxer
08-26-2014, 05:34 PM
As I added above - I doubt many people under 30 will tune into a 2-3 hour debate, rife with CBC propaganda or read a 50 page party platform.

More likely they'll like, share, text or re-tweet 1-liners or funny image macros and vote (or not vote) accordingly.

I'm sure you and I will see.

Y'know - we've had this 'internet' thing for a while now :)

But we'll have to look at the stats after the next election

Foxer
08-26-2014, 05:43 PM
I think the chart I posted above speaks for itself. 2015 may well be the tipping point though, since you'll notice there's a sort of hourglass shape forming between the Boomers and Millennials.

It's going to be MUCH more pronounced in a decade, as boomers start dying off from old age - but the major difference between how these two user groups interact with technology is this.

Boomers need deep, slow, sequential stimulation to process information.

Millenials need shallow, fast, concurrent stimulation to process information.

The VOLUME of information is no different between the two groups, it's just HOW they process information that is different - which is key.

To get people to behave a certain way, first they need to be informed. Ergo, if the one political party wanted to inform young people "my party is best for you - you should vote for me" they will HAVE to chose the right medium to present that information.

In 2008, only half the Millenial generation COULD vote. In 2015 - most of them will be able to, and they will make up a sizable portion of the electorate.

Beyond 2015 - as the Boomer demographic becomes smaller, it will be the Millenials who become the dominant force in politics - that's just how democracy works.

Getting them now is critical for long term success - and I don't see any political party doing so. Honestly - it wouldn't surprise me to see them all wiped from the political landscape in 20 years.
I'm sorry, but most of this is just wrong.

First off, the 'boomers' aren't going to die off in a decade. Honestly - life expectancy these days is a lot better than that.

Second off, you're just not correct about one generation vs another as far as 'stimulation'. Humans are humans. There really is no difference between the generations the way you'd like to think there is. And this may surprise you, but the so called 'milennials' are not the first to enter adult life with fairly pervasive social media technology.

I think social media is important (just as I think tv coverage and ads are important, and radio and newsprint ads are important etc) and it can be effective in getting out the message. But it's just one tool in a much bigger tool box and not even the most valuable. And kids are kids. They're really no different than the kids of yesteryear. And truth be told - chances are apps or no apps, they're not going to turn out to vote in anywhere near the same number as the older generations.