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View Full Version : Poll: Trudeau in trouble in Home Riding.



soulchaser
09-17-2015, 05:59 PM
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576

A new poll indicates that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau could be in danger of losing his seat in Parliament.
Trudeau has represented the Montreal, Que., riding of Papineau since 2008.
According to the CROP survey commissioned by the NDP and released on Thursday, 35 per cent of respondents said they intend to vote for the Liberal leader.
NDP candidate Anne Lagace Dowson is polling at 46 per cent.
Another 10 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote for Maxime Claveau of the Bloc Quebecois.
Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Yvon Vadnais, came in fourth at 5 per cent.
The poll surveyed 375 residents of the riding over the phone between September 11 and 14.
Its margin of error is 5.06 per cent.

soulchaser
09-17-2015, 06:00 PM
Now, before you get too excited, the most important line in the story: THIS POLL WAS COMMISSIONED BY THE NDP.

They have planned this for a while. They planted the seed three days ago here:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2219994/ndp-believes-trudeaus-in-trouble-in-home-riding/

And the "poll" is released mere hours before a very crucial debate to fluster Trudeau.

kennymo
09-17-2015, 06:04 PM
According to the CROP survey commissioned by the NDP

So it couldn't possibly be biased in any way....:rolleyes:

As much as I'd love to see Justin follow that rich, Liberal tradition, I can't help but feel this is a bit of an NDP scare tactic to try and scoop a few Liberal votes....
But like I also said, if Justin looses his seat there will be a crazed, wild man running circles on my lawn, laughing hysterically. Or maybe on my brother in law's lawn for all his snide Liberal comments....

soulchaser
09-17-2015, 06:10 PM
So it couldn't possibly be biased in any way....:rolleyes:

As much as I'd love to see Justin follow that rich, Liberal tradition, I can't help but feel this is a bit of an NDP scare tactic to try and scoop a few Liberal votes....
But like I also said, if Justin looses his seat there will be a crazed, wild man running circles on my lawn, laughing hysterically. Or maybe on my brother in law's lawn for all his snide Liberal comments....

Me to, but only if it were a Trudeau loss and a CPC majority.

soulchaser
09-17-2015, 06:19 PM
From Warren Kinsella's site:

Quito Maggi says:
September 17, 2015 at 6:57 pm
Warren, the poll is accurate, I have looked at the report and the methodology is clear, they have weighed for age and gender. This poll of Francophones is 100% correct. As we all know, Papineau is 100% francophone…..isn’t it?

Quinto is the president of Mainstreet Technologies polling firm.

webster
09-17-2015, 08:57 PM
Not likely, but how sweet would that be? ;D

Foxer
09-18-2015, 11:17 AM
Well - it's not exactly entirely implausable. In the past trudeau's closest opponent was the bloc. Remember - the ndp was a non entity in quebec until 2011. They only held one seat before that (mulcairs) and then only for one term.

So seeing as they can't stand the CPC, it was really a choice between 'Federalist who could actually form gov't' and "seperatist', who obviously could not. Now - the NDP is offering a NEW left of center option that wasn't on the table before, and the might even form gov't. It's actually more likely than the libs forming gov't.

So you can't look at the last race's results and just go by them, there's a new political demographic at work and it's quite possible people might choose to go that way.

It would be hilarious. It would also be the death of trudeau, especially if he comes in third.

Mark-II
09-18-2015, 01:27 PM
So..... The question is who will be next on the gibbet if the long knives come for Caesar?

Rory McCanuck
09-18-2015, 02:48 PM
Kinsella maybe?
Not a job I'd want, but I guess if the measure of success is not driving it any further into the ground, it could be a cushy job for that type of person.

Foxer
09-18-2015, 02:50 PM
Kinsella maybe?
Not a job I'd want, but I guess if the measure of success is not driving it any further into the ground, it could be a cushy job for that type of person.

I proposed that idea back in april - and the more time passes the more it seems likely to me.