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View Full Version : New EKOS POLL - Conservatives open big lead.



soulchaser
09-24-2015, 06:21 AM
Now, remember 1) IT's EKOS, 2) Nobody else is showing these national numbers, so it could be a rogue poll - That 1 in 20 that is outside the MOE.

CPC 35.4

Libs 26.4

NDP 24

The CPC lead nationally is helped by a resurgence in Ontario

CPC 37

Libs 30

NDP 19

http://www.680news.com/2015/09/24/conservatives-on-verge-of-majority-win-poll/

soulchaser
09-24-2015, 06:24 AM
Now, the CPC level in Ontario SEEMS to be backed up by a new Mainstreet Research poll of Ontario federal vote intention also released today:

CPC 38

Libs 34

NDP 18.

soulchaser
09-24-2015, 06:27 AM
Not getting excited, but if EKOS' history of under reporting CPC support by at least 3% is any indication, the CPC could be up near 39%.

soulchaser
09-24-2015, 06:37 AM
I'll post the link to the EKOS data tables when they become available.

kennymo
09-24-2015, 07:00 AM
I predict one of two things. 1) MSM pretends it didn't happen. 2) Much butthurt by union media members.

Billythreefeathers
09-24-2015, 08:55 AM
lets see if this holds and is a trend with the other pollss,, but make me smile ;)

TJSpeller
09-24-2015, 10:28 AM
I sure hope this is real. Anyway, this should energize the base, some of whom I found were getting a bit glum and had forgotten just what it would mean to have NDP/Liberal government.

It may be possible to get a majority again. That would be incredible for gun owners. Another 4 years for the community to grow, become more unified, stronger voice.

Now is the time to really put the effort in. 3 more weeks!!

Prairie Dog
09-24-2015, 10:30 AM
I predict one of two things. 1) MSM pretends it didn't happen. 2) Much butthurt by union media members.

CTV's Craig Oliver was almost in tears reporting this.

Doug_M
09-24-2015, 10:39 AM
They are installing a big two-sign 4'x4' wedge in my front lawn now as I type this. They put it on my neighbour's lawn across the way earlier this morning by mistake!

EDIT: nothing to do with the poll, I know, just got excited :)

Carguy2550
09-24-2015, 10:41 AM
Is your neighbour a CPC supporter?

Zinilin
09-24-2015, 10:44 AM
CTV's Craig Oliver was almost in tears reporting this.
Is there a link?

RangeBob
09-24-2015, 10:46 AM
I did some simple math, just 338 seats * % popularity from survey
170 seats needed to win majority


CPC 35.4 = 120 seats

Libs 26.4 = 89 seats

NDP 24 = 81 seats


I note that poll tracker says that with Conservatives at 31.3%, they'd have 125 seats.

Prairie Dog
09-24-2015, 11:15 AM
Is there a link?

Probably not, it was just a segment on CTV National this morning.

Foxer
09-24-2015, 12:29 PM
I note that poll tracker says that with Conservatives at 31.3%, they'd have 125 seats.

Which doesn't add up when I calculate it.

I was just commenting a day or so ago that looking things over I felt the cpc was probably being underreported and they were more likey at 33 percent or so, so I don't have a horribly difficult time believing these numbers are not far off. And two polls with different methodologies producing similar numbers is encouraging. And ekos has been reletively accurate historically, even if they're a little left leaning. Mainstreet is kind of new and will want to make a name for themselves by being accurate.

We'll see, but it is my feeling that the cpc is doing better than some of the polls are suggesting for one reason or another.

soulchaser
09-24-2015, 12:38 PM
Which doesn't add up when I calculate it.

I was just commenting a day or so ago that looking things over I felt the cpc was probably being underreported and they were more likey at 33 percent or so, so I don't have a horribly difficult time believing these numbers are not far off. And two polls with different methodologies producing similar numbers is encouraging. And ekos has been reletively accurate historically, even if they're a little left leaning. Mainstreet is kind of new and will want to make a name for themselves by being accurate.

We'll see, but it is my feeling that the cpc is doing better than some of the polls are suggesting for one reason or another.

Not last federal election they weren't, at least on the CPC number

CPC 33.9 (actual 39.6)
Libs 21 (actual 18.9)
NDP 31.2 (actual 30.6)

Wouldn't put it past Liberal donor Graves to put this out to fire up Lib voters/bring soft NDP to the libs.

Stephen
09-24-2015, 12:41 PM
Woohoo

soulchaser
09-24-2015, 12:43 PM
The Mainstreet Ontario poll had a sample of something like 4500 people.

That's pretty big considering most national polls are 1000 to 1200

Foxer
09-24-2015, 05:10 PM
Not last federal election they weren't, at least on the CPC number

CPC 33.9 (actual 39.6)
Libs 21 (actual 18.9)
NDP 31.2 (actual 30.6)

Meh, pretty much everyone underestmated the final cpc numbers. Even nanos totally twists their numbers so that it looks like they came close, but really they were off almost as much. The CPC gained a lot of momentum in the last 4 days of the camapaign and picked up about 4 percent over that time as people finally had to make a decison and they came down on the side of the CPC. Ekos generally got the momentum issues right over the campaign, and got the other two scores pretty good (remember polls have about a 2 - 3 percent margin of error at the best of times). I wouldn't take ekos' numbers as gospel, but they usually do pretty good.

So - if theyr'e saying the CPC has opened up a gap, it certainly is a positive sign. Their exact numbers may not be perfect, but it does indicate that the cpc probably has actually opened the race a little bit and it's corroborated by a few other sources that indicate CPC momentum. I myself was pegging them at about 33 ish percent.


Wouldn't put it past Liberal donor Graves to put this out to fire up Lib voters/bring soft NDP to the libs.
I don't think it would have that effect, and I don't think he would think it would either. If anything, it would tend to lead to voter repression in the 'left'. If he wanted to make people leave the ndp and go to the libs he'd show the libs slightly ahead of the cpc by a nose and the ndp behind. That would motivate people to consider the libs. This just makes the left wingers feel like theyr'e going to lose and stay home.

But - there's still 3 weeks left and that's a very long time in politics.

cantom
09-24-2015, 07:56 PM
CTV's Craig Oliver was almost in tears reporting this.

When is that rotten SOB going to retire? :mad1:

dpo2o
09-24-2015, 10:39 PM
CTV's Craig Oliver was almost in tears reporting this.
He's still alive?

Foxer
09-24-2015, 10:41 PM
When is that rotten SOB going to retire? :mad1:

When we destroy the evil tome known as the Necromocon which was used by the dark wizards to create him in the first place.

Edenchef
09-25-2015, 03:51 PM
When we destroy the evil tome known as the Necromoronocon which was used by the dark wizards to create him in the first place.

Corrected.

redryder
09-25-2015, 04:47 PM
He's still alive?

I'm sorry to report that craig oliver died 3 yrs ago. Somebody should have the heart to tell him.

Edward Teach
09-25-2015, 04:59 PM
I'm sorry to report that craig oliver died 3 yrs ago. Somebody should have the heart to tell him.

http://img.ksl.com/slc/2502/250278/25027818.jpeg

Petamocto
09-25-2015, 05:02 PM
Based on what we had four years ago vs what we have now, another four years of Conservative majority could aim for the next two big wins: ARs to non-restricted if they meet the other criteria, and removal of mag restrictions.

Marcel
09-26-2015, 04:50 AM
Bring it!!!

http://i843.photobucket.com/albums/zz352/MarcelB1957/Liberal_crying_dummies_after_May_2011_Federal_elec tion__400x400_zpspkqpx8mg.jpg

jwirecom109
09-26-2015, 07:01 AM
Bring it!!!

http://i843.photobucket.com/albums/zz352/MarcelB1957/Liberal_crying_dummies_after_May_2011_Federal_elec tion__400x400_zpspkqpx8mg.jpg

HAHAHA I almost forgot about that picture, Almost.

Stephen
09-26-2015, 10:06 AM
HAHAHA I almost forgot about that picture, Almost.

There are better ones out there now. I have a few of Justin hanging out with some gay boys and two other pics of him standing beside topless woman. I'm not sure about the legality of posting them but is this really the face we want to represent Canada?

There's even a couple of Thom hanging out with some femboys with a gay agenda sign. The world is crumbling and these guys decide to become SJWs.