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soulchaser
09-26-2015, 10:47 AM
Land line, sample 1784 Sept 15 - 23

CPC 31
NDP 29
Lib 28

Online, sample 2805, Sept 20 - 24

CPC - 32
Lib 30
NDP 27

Different results for provincial breakdowns based on land line or online.

https://www.hilltimes.com/polling/2015/09/25/have-the-ndp-missed-the-greatest-electoral-opportunity-in-their-history/43515

Foxer
09-26-2015, 12:42 PM
The analysis is pretty weak. But there is some interesting tidbits in there.

Once again tho - a large poll that is giving momentum to the CPC and suggests they're in the lead and more importantly that they're on the upswing and growing. The undecided has not been reported in this campaign, and that group may very well represent a large group that suddenly sways the numbers. The pollster is quite wrong that the undecided 'don't vote', they do. Often they wind up 'deciding' in about the same ratio as we see nationally and so it doesn't make a real big difference, but we also see them occasionally decide in the last minute that they do or don't like one party and they show up in larger numbers. Also - we can see supporters of one party or another decide to become 'undecided' and stay home on election day. These factors played a role in the last BC election, where right wing supporters who were very unhappy with the bc libs turned up en masse to stop Adrian Dix, and Dix's supporters decided they really didn't care that much and stayed home.

I have an overall sense that the CPC is beginning to gain momentum and is in fact probably in the lead at this point, and that this momentum may very well have legs. IF they can continue that slow build and slow but steady growth for the next 3 weeks, they should be in a strong position for a weak majority gov't in the end, by maybe about 5- 7 seats. I think the cpc's numbers right now are closer to 33 -34 percent and that puts them about 4 points away from majority territory. That is doable - if they finish with a strong campaign they could still take this handily.

savage300wsm
09-26-2015, 02:06 PM
I have noticed (correct me if I am wrong ) that the Libs and NDP have pretty much laid out their economic plan. They aren't big on details but the basic framework seems to be there. Also it was interesting that JT had Goodale do this. The CPC have yet to put there's out. Let's hope they can trump everyone when they do as it may just be the the nail in the others coffin or the CPC coffin if they screw it up.

Foxer
09-26-2015, 02:52 PM
I have noticed (correct me if I am wrong ) that the Libs and NDP have pretty much laid out their economic plan. They aren't big on details but the basic framework seems to be there. Also it was interesting that JT had Goodale do this. The CPC have yet to put there's out. Let's hope they can trump everyone when they do as it may just be the the nail in the others coffin or the CPC coffin if they screw it up.


Well not exactly. THe liberals only just released the majority of their plan today. They had released a 'framework' previously which was really not that informative, it gave the 'broad strokes' without saying how they'd get there or what else they'd do. Mulcair has apperently released his numbers, tho i think there's a few surprises still in store. The cpc is a little different - they're the incumbent. We always pretty much knew their financial plan because they actually passed a budget and we're in the middle of it. So there was no 'mystery' going into the election - we've already got their budget to work with and we can even see how it's doing (better than expected as it turns out). They only provide info on what they might change in the future, they don't really put out a 'plan' because we're already in the middle of their plan.

I think what the real 'issue' is going to be is how 'real' are the opposition plans? Trudeau is promising hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending - which he says he'll get from some pretty dubious tax sources. And that he'll add 30 billion dollars in new debt to cover the shortfall. Is that real? Or are we going to be on the hook for the whole 150 billion. Mulcair says he'll raise money by taxing business more, and that he'll balance the books. IS that a real thing? His plan to provide child care hinges on the provinces ponying up 40 percent of the money - are they going to agree to that? can they afford it? I'm not sure alberta can right now, or the maritimes, and certainly not ontario. BC might, but it would put us back into deficit unless we raise taxes to cover the difference.

I think that over the next few weeks we'll see people ripping apart those costings and asking what it will REALLY cost.

savage300wsm
09-26-2015, 03:16 PM
I can't see the provinces putting up the money. The SOB will just cut transfer payments or raid EI. Where have we seen that before. The gun registry was a financial catastrophe but the NDP child care plan will make it look like chump change.

Reality is I am scared s****less of a NDP or Lib government. My family simply cannot afford it because it will be the working middle class that pays the bill.

I hear people at work praising the idea of 15 dollar day care. What they don't realize is that it will cost them and their kids a pile more. Uniformed Canadians who still believe we have free health care will ruin this country.

RangeBob
09-26-2015, 03:58 PM
I hear people at work praising the idea of 15 dollar day care. What they don't realize is that it will cost them and their kids a pile more.

What's wrong with children paying for their own day care with a twenty year loan ?

savage300wsm
09-26-2015, 04:05 PM
Unfortunately that is the way it will be. I paid the full cost for my kids and never expected anyone to do it for me. I was p**ssed of at Harper when he brought in the $100 dollar a month cheque and then followed that up with another $60.

The other parties would be 10 times worse and that is why I vote CPC but in reality they cater too much to the "government owes me everything crowd".

When you live in a country that takes half of what you earn it makes things pretty tough. If only we got to keep most of what we earned we all could pay for our own services like daycare and as a result generate more jobs and better service. In a government pays system all the hogs line up at the trough and take as much as they can and do as little as possible. Go socialism !

soulchaser
09-26-2015, 04:43 PM
I have noticed (correct me if I am wrong ) that the Libs and NDP have pretty much laid out their economic plan. They aren't big on details but the basic framework seems to be there. Also it was interesting that JT had Goodale do this. The CPC have yet to put there's out. Let's hope they can trump everyone when they do as it may just be the the nail in the others coffin or the CPC coffin if they screw it up.

The CPC have already released the vast, vast majority of their fiscal plan.

It was called the 2015 - 2016 budget.