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Booletsnotreactwell
01-15-2017, 09:09 AM
First let me start off by saying I usually keep prepping stuff grounded in reality, I think the most likely thing is financial SHTF which could then turn into social SHTF and if all else fails total SHTF. I'm not the type of guy concerned with EMP, solar flares, global warming tsunamis, asteroids, nuclear attacks, Russian invasion red dawn fantasy shit, crackpot alien theory stuff, terminators, reptilian conspiracy, etc...

Giving this some thought the other day... Biological threats. If the perfect storm of ingredients came together it would be downright insane and most preps and plans anybody has out of the few who actually have them would be turned upside down. Note I'm not talking about some man made foreign power chemical attack, chemical threats can be bad but they're greatly limited in nature.

Never in the history of the world have we been playing with genetics as much as we do now. Medicine, drugs, over-medication, GMO, anti-bacterial everything, antibiotics, monstato and everything else. Maybe "genetics" isn't the appropriate medical term but you get the idea.

Example of a hypothetical scenario...

Think of some chicken farm in China, they use some monstato gmo modified genetic seeds, steroids, growth hormones, antibiotics, etc on the chickens. Somehow that gets into some dude who has taken every single antibiotic known to man, which goes to another dude who's taking X, Y drug which goes to another dude who's taking Z drug and finally the perfect storm of ingredients forms some killer virus.

All of a sudden we get some drug-resistant killer avian bird flu, it's drug resistant to everything we have, it can spread through bodily fluids, it's airborne, blood borne, everything borne.

That's the type of thing that sneaks up on you, real fast. That type of scenario, you'd know nothing about it, then you'd hear the usual bullshit about some new H1NXYZ virus discovered, then it's some new flu that's killing people in a far away country. By this time the things everywhere and by the time you figure out something is happening there's at least one guy carrying it on the street car, the subway, at work, etc...

With Biological threats like that, you wouldn't know anythings going on until it was and when that happens everything would go to shit within 72 hrs. That's the killer with this, to prep for this kind of threat you'd almost have to take a gamble and spot the shit happening before it happens.


At what point do you say, okay shits going down. Not show up for work, not tell anybody where you're going and proceed to buy every bit of supplies you can from the grocery store, hardware store, etc and head for your trailer in butt heck nowhere or your cabin in the woods. If you get it wrong (and you can the odds are against you) you look like a Y2K dumbass who went to the local grocery in rain gear and didn't show up for work in two weeks OR you wait until you have 100% confirmation shit is going down except by that point everything is going to shit, quarantine zones are being established, Mil/LEO shutting down infrastructure, travel restrictions, mandatory evacuations to local community centers, etc...

kennymo
01-15-2017, 10:04 AM
So zombie virus?




Your best protection is probably living several miles from the nearest human being....

Specter Arms
01-15-2017, 11:11 AM
I see what you are getting at. Your big question as well as the question of other survivialists is : when to leave.

I dislike your statement about things being a gamble as to when to leave. First thing about surviving anything is to empower yourself and not leave things to chance.

I suggest to anyone that they use the following indicators for any emergency (biological or not):


Indicators

YOU ARE TOO LATE IF....
Blockades and checkpoints
Forced evacuations
Military deployment

IT MIGHT BE TIME TO GO WHEN....
Looting
Calling up of reserves, mobilization of military
Prolonged natural disaster
Hyperinflation
Water supplies fall below 3L per person
It is unsafe to get groceries
Declaration of emergency measures/powers
Nbcr attack
Police, fire svcs and healthcare start to become unreliable due to manpower shortages

BE READY IF....
Bank holiday
Gun seizures
Stock market falling 500 points in one day
Natural disaster
Loss of utilities



I understand that the 72 hour timeframe you stated may not allow this indicator list to be "fast enough" warning.
-If you work in the service industry and deal with people all day...well... you are probably going to be one of the first to die; no warning can save you.
-If you work with a small group of people or alone, this indicator list might work for you. Just stay away from "that guy" who never calls in sick.

Typically viruses are susceptible to UV light so staying in the sunshine would help mitgate risk... well... a teeny bit anyway.
Part of my survival gear is a UV light that is small and waterproof for sterilizing water. You just throw it into your water container. That should be part of your gear as well.

I could go on....but I have some 3d printing to do today. I will check back later.

Deuce-deuce
01-15-2017, 11:20 AM
Hand sanitizer and an AR-15?

Joshua13
01-15-2017, 11:27 AM
This is how it's going to happen. They are already having issues with drug resistant viruses. Best bet is to stay away from people.

Sent from my E6560T using Tapatalk

LB303
01-15-2017, 01:28 PM
"That guy" would be me. But only because I work in a small department. And generally hate crowded venues to begin with.
72 hours without utilities? Been there. The world didn't end but I did see some edgy people. And that was before cellphone addiction really took root.

Best advice I've heard is to get out of the cities, period. On a "normal" day, what passes for civility is often thinly veiled savagery. Just watch what drivers do in traffic- that steel cocoon is like internet anonymity in the way their self-centeredness trumps charitable (or even sensible) behaviour. Walking down the sidewalk, compare the amount of times that pedestrians unconsciously gauge each other in passing as to threat level- body language is given precedence, eye contact is generally avoided, and if it happens, most often a micro-nod is the unspoken signal that it's okay, contact will not proceed, carry on with your business.

As to 'bugging in', I live in the leafy suburbs on a cul de sac - there are 8 other houses on my street, one of them belonging to a fellow gunnie. Between the two of us and maybe a couple of the other residents, we could set up our own neighbourhood watch if the need arose, but that's only a short term solution. A week without hydro and the city water would lose pressure, refrigerated insulin would spoil, people would be in dire straits. Honestly I think that attacks on the grid are more worrisome than biological vectors, due to the potential for immediate widespread effect.

blacksmithden
01-15-2017, 03:51 PM
This is how it's going to happen. They are already having issues with drug resistant viruses. Best bet is to stay away from people.

Sent from my E6560T using Tapatalk

Well.....there are drug resistant bacteria. We don't have drugs that kill virus'. Immunization for a virus typically involves injecting you with a modified, dead, version of the virus so that your body's immune system can do the voodoo that it does to adapt/produce antibodies to combat it when the live version infects you. There are drug resistant bacteria out there....and those are the ones that scare me, and are the reason I only go to a hospital if there are no other alternatives. Westicle can tell you all about methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections. I'm sure there are a few others on the site who have had bouts with it. Most infections occur when a patient is hospitalize for something, and picks it up there. I have a rule I follow. Stay the hell away from hospitals if you can because that's where they keep all the infectious people.

As far as "when to bug out".....that's a hard one for me. Given my family circumstances, I'll be bugging in. When so I hunker down and screw the doors and windows shut due to a viral or bacterial outbreak ? I honestly haven't given it that much thought. Probably when I hear about a bunch of people getting infected and dying outside of a hospital, AND when the government says that it's all ok. I tend to rely on my gut the older I get. It seems to be getting more accurate at assessing real world situations.

Rory McCanuck
01-15-2017, 04:15 PM
"That guy" would be me. But only because I work in a small department. And generally hate crowded venues to begin with.
72 hours without utilities? Been there. The world didn't end but I did see some edgy people. And that was before cellphone addiction really took root.

Best advice I've heard is to get out of the cities, period. On a "normal" day, what passes for civility is often thinly veiled savagery. Just watch what drivers do in traffic- that steel cocoon is like internet anonymity in the way their self-centeredness trumps charitable (or even sensible) behaviour. Walking down the sidewalk, compare the amount of times that pedestrians unconsciously gauge each other in passing as to threat level- body language is given precedence, eye contact is generally avoided, and if it happens, most often a micro-nod is the unspoken signal that it's okay, contact will not proceed, carry on with your business.

As to 'bugging in', I live in the leafy suburbs on a cul de sac - there are 8 other houses on my street, one of them belonging to a fellow gunnie. Between the two of us and maybe a couple of the other residents, we could set up our own neighbourhood watch if the need arose, but that's only a short term solution. A week without hydro and the city water would lose pressure, refrigerated insulin would spoil, people would be in dire straits. Honestly I think that attacks on the grid are more worrisome than biological vectors, due to the potential for immediate widespread effect.
One of the best posts on the forum, thank you.

After moving out of Winnipeg, I didn't go back in for about 2 months.
When I did drive back in, I got as far as the Perimeter and noticed my neck and shoulders tensing up.
I hadn't realised just how unhealthy it was.

lone-wolf
01-15-2017, 08:36 PM
At the worst, you die a little sooner than you might not of. No worries.

Booletsnotreactwell
01-16-2017, 12:29 AM
90% or something like that of us in this country live in major urban centers of some sort. Yea the guys that live in the country or town population 5k will definitely have it better but the part that distinguishes preps from crackpots is the point where you don't uproot your whole life for "what ifs". A lot of us people are city dudes, that's where we live, work and we have to find a way to best manage the risks.

I live downtown in an apartment house and car commute to the suburbs for work. I don't work in the face to face service industry but I work in an area with about 100 other people at any given point in a shift, were all using things that were touched/occupied by another different 100 guys from another shift who are doing the same thing as the previous shift which had another different 100 guys. Safe to say I get sick about 4-6 times a year just from catching almost every single disease each season.

The point where you have to decide not to go to work is a big one for me. "Bugging in" seems like a good idea at first, I got preps and could probably live without opening the front door for a few months. Thing is were still in too much of a target rich environment, there's just too many ways to come into contact with other people, touching the guardrails, the elevator buttons, the key card thingy of the underground garage, shared HVAC system, etc. Take into account Hurricane Katrina style FEMA door to door searches/mandatory evacuations to local community centers/quarantine zones; bugging in when you live in the city just isn't good for a biological threat, your risk of exposure is stupid high. You're not really that much better off in the suburbs, when it comes to biological threats unless you're out in the sticks already in small town pop 5k you need to egress to a secure location at some point, the key will be isolating yourself from other people and staying hidden from any authority/people.


So that goes back to the main question. When do you leave, how do you leave, where do you go, how long do you stay?



So zombie virus?
Your best protection is probably living several miles from the nearest human being....

Zombie virus would be surprisingly easier to deal with. This type of thing, you'd have people incubating without any symptoms while being contagious, harder to spot, harder to deal with and just as deadly. Not to mention unlike the zombie virus, world wide contagious pandemics have happened before, the plague killed off what like a third of the worlds population?


As far as "when to bug out".....that's a hard one for me. Given my family circumstances, I'll be bugging in. When so I hunker down and screw the doors and windows shut due to a viral or bacterial outbreak ? I honestly haven't given it that much thought. Probably when I hear about a bunch of people getting infected and dying outside of a hospital, AND when the government says that it's all ok. I tend to rely on my gut the older I get. It seems to be getting more accurate at assessing real world situations.

We've come to the same paradigm. Shits gonna be pretty close to on top of you before you realize that something major is going on. Only thing I see is the "eye in the storm" type scenario where you're gonna have a very small window to act while people think everything is gonna be alright and the government has everything under control.

In that window, I load up the car with everything and head for the tinfoil guy I know with a trailer on some remote backcountry land up in northern Ontario. Thing is you time that wrong and there's a road block or something, they pop the trunk and find all your supplies, NBC gear, firearms, you're going to the special trouble maker zone. Likely all usual civil rights/liberty will be suspended temporarily at that point so you won't have much a say in it.

ruger#1
01-16-2017, 04:31 AM
Stay away from germ spreaders. Like Tim's or that other place. I work in the feed business. Chicken's. Breath a lot of anti biotics everyday. So I will probably be the first to croak.

shootemup604
01-16-2017, 05:20 PM
Buy a MOPP suit and a respirator.

coastal
01-16-2017, 07:56 PM
I'm already bugged out... Good luck city folk!

chrisc
01-16-2017, 08:15 PM
90% or something like that of us in this country live in major urban centers of some sort. Yea the guys that live in the country or town population 5k will definitely have it better but the part that distinguishes preps from crackpots is the point where you don't uproot your whole life for "what ifs". A lot of us people are city dudes, that's where we live, work and we have to find a way to best manage the risks.

I live downtown in an apartment house and car commute to the suburbs for work. I don't work in the face to face service industry but I work in an area with about 100 other people at any given point in a shift, were all using things that were touched/occupied by another different 100 guys from another shift who are doing the same thing as the previous shift which had another different 100 guys. Safe to say I get sick about 4-6 times a year just from catching almost every single disease each season.

The point where you have to decide not to go to work is a big one for me. "Bugging in" seems like a good idea at first, I got preps and could probably live without opening the front door for a few months. Thing is were still in too much of a target rich environment, there's just too many ways to come into contact with other people, touching the guardrails, the elevator buttons, the key card thingy of the underground garage, shared HVAC system, etc. Take into account Hurricane Katrina style FEMA door to door searches/mandatory evacuations to local community centers/quarantine zones; bugging in when you live in the city just isn't good for a biological threat, your risk of exposure is stupid high. You're not really that much better off in the suburbs, when it comes to biological threats unless you're out in the sticks already in small town pop 5k you need to egress to a secure location at some point, the key will be isolating yourself from other people and staying hidden from any authority/people.


So that goes back to the main question. When do you leave, how do you leave, where do you go, how long do you stay?




Zombie virus would be surprisingly easier to deal with. This type of thing, you'd have people incubating without any symptoms while being contagious, harder to spot, harder to deal with and just as deadly. Not to mention unlike the zombie virus, world wide contagious pandemics have happened before, the plague killed off what like a third of the worlds population?



We've come to the same paradigm. Shits gonna be pretty close to on top of you before you realize that something major is going on. Only thing I see is the "eye in the storm" type scenario where you're gonna have a very small window to act while people think everything is gonna be alright and the government has everything under control.

In that window, I load up the car with everything and head for the tinfoil guy I know with a trailer on some remote backcountry land up in northern Ontario. Thing is you time that wrong and there's a road block or something, they pop the trunk and find all your supplies, NBC gear, firearms, you're going to the special trouble maker zone. Likely all usual civil rights/liberty will be suspended temporarily at that point so you won't have much a say in it.

GOC meetup in the troublemaker zone? Who's gonna bring the beer?

shootemup604
01-16-2017, 10:03 PM
Switch the car out for a big 4X4 with run flats and a big bumper and you won't have to stop for roadblocks...

Specter Arms
01-17-2017, 08:51 AM
Switch the car out for a big 4X4 with run flats and a big bumper and you won't have to stop for roadblocks...

Don't be so sure.
Setting up a roadblock could be as easy as parking a semi trailer across certain routes. This would be done to conserve manpower by forcing people through the manned and controlled routes.
A manned checkpoint will force you to make tight turns through it causing you to drive slow and be an easy target for "patrol carbines".

infidel29
01-17-2017, 06:43 PM
I work in a germ factory so I'd likely be one of the first zombies....MMMMMM BBRRRRAAIIINNNSSSS.

ruger#1
01-17-2017, 08:44 PM
Don't be so sure.
Setting up a roadblock could be as easy as parking a semi trailer across certain routes. This would be done to conserve manpower by forcing people through the manned and controlled routes.
A manned checkpoint will force you to make tight turns through it causing you to drive slow and be an easy target for "patrol carbines". One of these would help. http://www.gibbsamphibians.com/platform/humdinga/

ruger#1
01-17-2017, 08:50 PM
Buy a MOPP suit and a respirator. Ha Ha, I have been doing this for over 35 years. Who knows, I might be the, Omega Man. If you haven't, You should watch that movie.

shootemup604
01-17-2017, 09:30 PM
Don't be so sure.
Setting up a roadblock could be as easy as parking a semi trailer across certain routes. This would be done to conserve manpower by forcing people through the manned and controlled routes.
A manned checkpoint will force you to make tight turns through it causing you to drive slow and be an easy target for "patrol carbines".

Yep, I know the classic VCP setup. So maybe a bigger truck (semi with a snow plow) and some armour?

Booletsnotreactwell
01-18-2017, 08:10 AM
The best bet and your first plan should be getting to a secure location beforehand, all this stuff about running road blocks, that's fantasy prepper stuff. While that might very well happen in the beginning of SHTF the grid as it applies to that stuff will very much be up, trying to run a roadblock will get you effed up no matter how many special things you have or plan to do, even if you did manage it you'd expend considerable resources for nothing.

That's one thing that gets me about prepardnes people who's main prepardness loadout looks like they're ready to drop out of a blackhawk for a night raid. Talk to guys that have done that stuff. Even if you're decked out with enough gear to storm omaha beach, just one engagement can deplete you of almost all resources.


Back on topic.

Just thought I'd see what other people have to say about what they think of a biological threat. To me I consider it pretty serious, it's almost as bad as nuclear but a lot more likely/possible.


What are your specific biological threat preps/plans if you have any? If you don't, what do you plan on doing?

Specter Arms
01-20-2017, 07:58 AM
I do a lot a business with survivialists and I do think a good firearm with readily available ammo is important. But I have seen too many survivialists geared up for Mad Max with the idea that they can take what they need with thier firepower.

Now, don't get me wrong, I love those guys; they make me a lot of money. But realistically you are more likely to need the stuff that MEC sells for general survival situations.

As for NBCR I have a gas mask with several 40mm carbon filters but more importantly I understand the limitations of such a device. I have potassium iodide and the doses needed for myself and my son. I have a UV sterilizer.

More important then all my tools and toys is - I have a plan.

I think that in a disaster, the government will want everyone to stay calm and not do anything crazy so I think it is reasonable to assume they will impose curfews and close down travel. That reason alone is why I will not share my plans overtly on a public forum. They want me to stay home (and in my opinion die) and I want to leave.

Steveo9mm
01-20-2017, 08:11 AM
I do a lot a business with survivialists and I do think a good firearm with readily available ammo is important. But I have seen too many survivialists geared up for Mad Max with the idea that they can take what they need with thier firepower.

Now, don't get me wrong, I love those guys; they make me a lot of money. But realistically you are more likely to need the stuff that MEC sells for general survival situations.

As for NBCR I have a gas mask with several 40mm carbon filters but more importantly I understand the limitations of such a device. I have potassium iodide and the doses needed for myself and my son. I have a UV sterilizer.

More important then all my tools and toys is - I have a plan.

I think that in a disaster, the government will want everyone to stay calm and not do anything crazy so I think it is reasonable to assume they will impose curfews and close down travel. That reason alone is why I will not share my plans overtly on a public forum. They want me to stay home (and in my opinion die) and I want to leave.

and who the hells going to listen to the government?

Specter Arms
01-20-2017, 11:26 AM
and who the hells going to listen to the government?

Yes, exactly. What they want will be compliance. To get it, I fully expect them to utilize the threat of violence. Going back to the OPs original question "when to get out" is critical. There comes a point where it is simply "too late" and although 'bugging in' is not ideal, it may be the only choice once a control grid is established.

Ruff
02-08-2017, 06:48 AM
Human diseases are spread by human to human interaction, either by direct contact with the infections agent via your hands or in your food, etc, through the air, like smallpox, or via other species, like the mosquito based transmission of malaria. If no vaccine is available, the only way to avoid getting the disease is to absolutely avoid outside contact during an epidemic. You might be able to pull this off by hunkering down in the wilderness, but that didn't work during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, I believe because sooner or later you are going to meet an outsider.

I believe that sheltering in place at home may well be the best option because you can pre-stock the place with enough supplies to last for a very long period and still be able to get immunized when a vaccine becomes available (or not, if its a world ending epidemic). While absolutely isolating yourself may not be practicable, you can still stock such things as nitrile gloves and N95 masks to give yourself effective protection, alcohol sanitizer and surface disinfectants like chlorine bleach are also good things to have available. A big danger is if a family member falls ill; I saw a training type video that showed how to create a home isolation room complete with a window fan to create a positive air flow from the house into the room and out the window.

You really have to understand disease transmission for all of this to work and I have to say that brushing up against the health care profession in my career shows that surprisingly few people really do, not even the professionals. Most preps for this sort of sheltering at home as I've seen have presumed that the water and power will stay on, but any prepper worthy of the name will also be ready to deal if neither of those things happens.

Ruff
02-08-2017, 06:53 AM
I do a lot a business with survivialists and I do think a good firearm with readily available ammo is important. But I have seen too many survivialists geared up for Mad Max with the idea that they can take what they need with thier firepower.

Now, don't get me wrong, I love those guys; they make me a lot of money. But realistically you are more likely to need the stuff that MEC sells for general survival situations.

As for NBCR I have a gas mask with several 40mm carbon filters but more importantly I understand the limitations of such a device. I have potassium iodide and the doses needed for myself and my son. I have a UV sterilizer.

More important then all my tools and toys is - I have a plan.

I think that in a disaster, the government will want everyone to stay calm and not do anything crazy so I think it is reasonable to assume they will impose curfews and close down travel. That reason alone is why I will not share my plans overtly on a public forum. They want me to stay home (and in my opinion die) and I want to leave.

The people you mention in the first paragraph are not what I'd call survivalists, they're just wannabe predators that wouldn't last long living out their fantasies. Easy victims won't have anything to take and anyone else will end them quickly.

infidel29
02-09-2017, 12:34 PM
The people you mention in the first paragraph are not what I'd call survivalists, they're just wannabe predators that wouldn't last long living out their fantasies. Easy victims won't have anything to take and anyone else will end them quickly.

Maybe in the US where everyone has a gun. But this is Canada, where about 1 in 10 own guns. The other 9/10 would sadly be fodder for the wolves if the cops and military were no longer operational. And by wolves, I mean big gangs that likely would band together, and the very few once legal gun owners that now think they can take what they want. Plus, how many are mentally prepared to kill other humans, even if they have the means? Killing other humans is psychologically bred into us as a big no-no, just like eating other humans. Not many will be able to overcome that metal obstacle and be ok with it. Everyone and their mama says they can though....

Ruff
02-11-2017, 07:04 AM
Maybe in the US where everyone has a gun. But this is Canada, where about 1 in 10 own guns. The other 9/10 would sadly be fodder for the wolves if the cops and military were no longer operational. And by wolves, I mean big gangs that likely would band together, and the very few once legal gun owners that now think they can take what they want. Plus, how many are mentally prepared to kill other humans, even if they have the means? Killing other humans is psychologically bred into us as a big no-no, just like eating other humans. Not many will be able to overcome that metal obstacle and be ok with it. Everyone and their mama says they can though....

My point is that if it's true as they say that most people only have a few days of food and other supplies in the house at any given time, it won't matter during a lawless period how easy they are to rob or dominate, not as far as survival goes. I'm also guessing that people who are more prepared would be very costly to take on.