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View Full Version : Stock up on ammo now - prices are going to go through the roof



harbl_the_cat
09-20-2012, 10:13 AM
With the announcement of QE3 from the US Federal Reserve last week, all commodities had a major spike in price. This announcement from the Fed basically is an announcement to hyper-inflate the US currency supply through central bank bond purchases without limit.

This WILL send the price of ALL commodities through the roof, and lead to MUCH higher ammunition prices in the future.

I am placing a large order with a manufacturer (name withheld) and in my communications with them, they even noted that in the past week, the price of lead has gone up nearly $0.15 - around a 10% price increase.

To put it in perspective, they charge $99 / 1000 rounds of 124 grain FMJ 9mm bullets, or $9.99 / 100 bullets

Let's just say that for each bullet, 100 gns are lead and 24 grains are copper.

A lbs is 7000 grains.

For every 100 rounds, the input cost of the lead and copper are:

100 grains of lead x 100 bullets / 7000 = 1.429 lbs of lead
24 grains of copper x 100 bullets / 7000 = 0.3429 lbs of copper

Lead is presently $1.05 / lbs and copper is $3.73 / lbs, meaning just the material costs for the metals of these bullets is as follows:

$1.279 copper + $1.500 lead = $2.779 / 100 bullets.

In other words - roughly 27.8% of the input cost of ammunition comes from the raw material costs.

In the past month, both the market prices of lead AND copper have increased nearly 10%. This price increase has coincided perfectly with rumour and subsequent announcement by the US Fed about QE3 - and that doesn't even factor in the fact that for the foreseeable future, the Fed and US government will conjure up billions of dollars out of thin air and dump it into the global economy, where it will ultimately end up chasing commodities (such as lead and copper).

How this practically looks, is that in the past month alone, the cost to producers to procure the raw materials they need to produce ammunition have increased, and in order to stay in business they HAVE to pass those costs on to you and I as consumers.

In the example of 9mm projectiles, a 1 month, 10% increase in the price of the raw materials means theoretically, the cost for this manufacturer to produce those same projectiles has increased by nearly 2.78% and in response to this, any projectiles they produce in the future HAVE to reflect the increased input costs.

Don't be fooled by the fact that for the past year or so, ammo prices have stayed flat or decreased. I noticed 1000 round cans of .223 over the past few months have been around the $360 - $400 range, whereas those same cans 2-3 years ago were in the $400 - $450 range. This is because commodity price tanked along with every other asset prices in response to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. This is typical in deflationary depressions. However, in monetary systems like the one that exist now, the powers that be almost ALWAYS respond to deflationary pressures by adopting massive inflationary (and even hyperinflationary) policy to try to combat deflation - basically, rather than letting toxic assets collapse and letting the market reset itself - they try to re-inflate them by printing currency. The end result is ALWAYS massive inflation - with a symptom that the price of everything skyrocketting.

The bottom line is this, IMHO.

AMMUNITION PRICES WILL BE GOING UP VERY HIGH IN THE NEAR FUTURE. STOCK UP NOW WHILE YOU STILL HAVE THE CHANCE.

PhatKD
09-20-2012, 11:10 AM
Very good post!! I have been keeping a close eye on all the calibers I am currently stocking up on. Even CCI .22LR rounds have gone up,..And 270WSM 130grain has increased over $20 per box of 20 rounds in the last 4 years...I'm gonna put my money where my mouth is and stock up ASAP

JustBen
09-20-2012, 11:12 AM
I'm not so concerned about the rising cost of inputs so much as the potential for the US to go to war with Libya/Syria/Iran/etc. It all depends on how the election this fall goes.

Stew Chunks
09-20-2012, 02:22 PM
Everyone should stock up regularly even in small batches. Like housing, ammunition generally goes up

harbl_the_cat
09-20-2012, 02:45 PM
I think the US led war with Iran (which is a certainty, imo, regardless of who wins the election) will send commodity prices to the moon - which also is a good reason to be stocking up on ammo. Not so much to need it - but because I doubt there will be much available WHEN the US goes to war.

BrotherRockeye
09-20-2012, 04:00 PM
Just upped the powder reserve yesterday...

looks like I should restock bullets too.

FlyingHigh
09-20-2012, 06:07 PM
Starting to think i should stock up not only my ammo, but on an assortment of powders, bullets and primers even though I don't reload yet. Gonna be loading for 7mm, .223, and possibly .308.

Baker
09-20-2012, 07:32 PM
I think the US led war with Iran (which is a certainty, imo, regardless of who wins the election) will send commodity prices to the moon - which also is a good reason to be stocking up on ammo. Not so much to need it - but because I doubt there will be much available WHEN the US goes to war.


Yep.

Jim
10-04-2012, 11:49 PM
I agree there will be an increase and stocking up is a damn good idea.

Turkeyslayer 1300
10-05-2012, 05:02 AM
Got my Arsenal reduced down to 12ga,.22lr,.357 and 9mm. Just need a .30-06 and .375 H&H and I will have all the boring cheap calibers covered.