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Thread: Peter Zeihan

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Peter Zeihan

    2020 WM Sustainability Forum - Peter Zeihan
    Feb 6 2020, 45 minutes


    http://y2u.be/jT6HFCAFDgU

    A lot of his old ideas, expressed with a more recent context (and a few new jokes).

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    awndray (02-17-2020)

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Lots about {China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia} with {history, demographics, oil & natural gas, etc}.

    Demographics drove the big 5 trade treaties with the USA. Only with Mexico was there any negotiation.
    e.g. No negotiation with Canada during NAFTA, because of our aging demographic.




    @22:48
    US Shale is expected to be cheaper than Saudi Arabia oil in the near future.
    Canada's is the most expensive in the world.








    @26:35 - SOLAR PANELS (image is above)
    a) RED : solar power with today's technology makes both environmental sense, and economic sense.
    b) ORANGE : Probably not economic sense, but environmental sense
    c) YELLOW : It's a wash environmentally, but totally not worth the economic cost
    d) GREEN: solar panels will increase carbon footprint, economic loss

    @26:54 - WIND ENERGY (image is below)
    (same colour scheme)



    Less than 5% of today's cities could actually go green with Wind and Solar, if you factor out land that's needed for other things (like grain/farms), areas over 10,000 feet where the air is too thin, and remove everything that's more than 1000 miles away from a population center.

    @29, starts talking about why many countries will start using more coal.
    {Russia, Iran, United States} can generate power themselves from local fossel fuels.
    {Sweeden, Chili, Mexico} can get fossil fuels from their neighbours.
    {Britian, Japan, Italy} can take fossil fuels from elsewhere.
    Everyone else, it's a choice -- de-electrify, de-industrialize, de-civilize, or they can use coal.
    After spending $2 trillion on solar energy that has reduced their carbon footprint by 7%, Germany's now shifting to coal.

    Also, Germany and China will be wrecked if international trade is threatened if USA stops defending it.
    Last edited by RangeBob; 02-17-2020 at 01:06 PM.

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    Go Canucks Go! lone-wolf's Avatar
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    Usually you give a warning if the video isn't worth watching, so I assume this one is worthwhile?

    Everyone else, it's a choice -- de-electrify, de-industrialize, de-civilize, or they can use coal.
    This is lost on a lot of people, but worse, some understand and don't care.
    the wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept

    Aptet aut mori

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    Senior Member LB303's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lone-wolf View Post
    Usually you give a warning if the video isn't worth watching, so I assume this one is worthwhile?

    Everyone else, it's a choice -- de-electrify, de-industrialize, de-civilize, or they can use coal.
    This is lost on a lot of people, but worse, some understand and don't care.
    You mean the Greta worshippers, don't you

    All is not lost when it comes to the younger generation
    Been watching Naomi for a little while, her English is excellent but her target audience is naturally enough, German

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lone-wolf View Post
    Usually you give a warning if the video isn't worth watching, so I assume this one is worthwhile?
    This is probably the third Peter Zeihan almost-an-hour video I've seen, although I've seen a couple of his older ones more than once.
    Even having seen the old ones, I think this one is worth watching.
    Nonetheless, given it's 45 minutes long, and covers a lot of the same material, ...

    Quote Originally Posted by lone-wolf View Post
    Everyone else, it's a choice -- de-electrify, de-industrialize, de-civilize, or they can use coal.
    This is lost on a lot of people, but worse, some understand and don't care.
    He doesn't mention Nuclear Power, which could handle a lot of the load.

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Peter Zeihan talks about how perfect George Bush (the elder) was for the job of President 1989-1993, how he could have redefined the world, but Americans voted him out.

    Peter Zeihan talks about Canada's demographics, and manufacturing, and oil, and the next ten or twenty years, and
    left me with the feeling that what to do about it is beyond Harper (whose primary solution was to integrate Canada into other countries trade) and
    not only does justin not have any solutions or plan, he has no clue to even ask the questions of his staff or caucus for policy, let alone any ability to have the first clue about what to do about it while he's overseeing the weakening of the nation (economically, diplomatically, intellectually, socially, infrastructurally).
    Tax incentives for 3 child families with married parents, and express immigration of married families with 3 children under age 5 and some job prospects (including send the 27-29-year-old man over first (just after gang years, but still with 30 years of employment), if he promises to get a job and then send for his wife and kids in that order), was the only thing I came up with -- so that in a decade when we negotiate trade with another country we have a better consumer base to keep ours & their economy going.

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LB303 View Post
    You mean the Greta worshippers, don't you

    All is not lost when it comes to the younger generation
    Been watching Naomi for a little while, her English is excellent but her target audience is naturally enough, German

    http://y2u.be/8jNzaoV0kss
    She starts by saying that anyone who questions even a tiny part of Climate Change is called a Nazi. That would be perceived to be bad to Germans audience members.

    According to Peter Zeihan, in Brazil, the presidential candidate who won (Jair Bolsonaro 55% of vote, "Brazil Above Everything, God Above Everyone", Social Liberal Party) said that some of Brazil's policies just weren't Nazi enough; and the other presidential candidate ran from prison where he was after having been convicted of government corruption (Fernando Haddad 45% of vote, "The People Happy Again", Workers Party). This was said in the context of the speech, which was (a) only America has a hope of developing currently mysterious technologies that will effect Climate Change at reasonable prices, and (b) as bad as America's social & political landscape is at the moment it's no where near as crazy as Brazil.


    I presume Peter Zeihan hasn't watched this, where government inspired investment mucked up by the numbers...

    [not worth watching, unless you're interested in how torpedoes used to work, magnetic detonators vs earth's magnetic field, budget cuts affecting military years into WWII, and the swamp's beliefs crushing observation/evidence thus imperiling the world. I was content to have seen it, learned a couple things, but it's all useless information today.]
    The Mark 14 Torpedo - Failure is Like Onions
    Feb 2020, 30 minutes

    http://y2u.be/eQ5Ru7Zu_1I

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    Go Canucks Go! lone-wolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeBob View Post
    This is probably the third Peter Zeihan almost-an-hour video I've seen, although I've seen a couple of his older ones more than once.
    Even having seen the old ones, I think this one is worth watching.
    Nonetheless, given it's 45 minutes long, and covers a lot of the same material, ...
    It was definitely worth watching and I enjoyed it.
    You have to find it funny that a decreasing population and a lack of children being born, two things touted as good and ideal ways to help the globe by some very vocal groups, are the very things that may prevent Canada and other first world countries from having a meaning contribution to lessening world pollution.
    the wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept

    Aptet aut mori

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    awndray (02-17-2020)

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    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LB303 View Post
    I liked her question : What is the ideal global mean surface temperature ?

    The ending "I don't want you to panic. I want you to think."
    reminded me of Hitchhikery, and "Volcano (1997)" when the expert yells "don't just run in a panic. Stop, look up, and figure out where the rocks are going to fall, then get out of their way."

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