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  1. #631
    Senior Member M1917 Enfield's Avatar
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    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inve...nto-recession/

    What to expect from 10-year returns if we head into recession

    NORMAN ROTHERY
    SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    PUBLISHED JULY 31, 2022
    UPDATED YESTERDAY


    U.S. politicians should be singing Stayin’ Alive by the Bee Gees as the weight of 1970s-style inflation threatens to send them to the unemployment line.

    You can tell by the way the economy walks that it’s in need of help. It was revealed last Thursday that U.S. GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.9 per cent in the second quarter and that came after a 1.6 per cent decline in the first quarter.

    (The second quarter figure is an “advance” estimate that’s subject to revision as more data come in.)

    Two quarters of negative GDP growth is the classic indicator of a recession. But many U.S. politicians are singing a song to the contrary as they face midterm elections while hoping against hope their careers will be stayin’ alive.

    The near-term doesn’t look good because the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to tighten last Wednesday when it boosted its benchmark rate range by 75 basis points to between 2.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent. The Bank of Canada’s target is already at 2.5 per cent.

    Both are woefully below the year-over-year inflation rates, which were last seen rocketing up 9.1 per cent in the U.S. and 8.1 per cent in Canada.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker had to boost rates north of 19 per cent to tame inflation after it neared 15 per cent in 1980.

    Imagine what would happen if the central banks boosted rates four percentage points higher than inflation today. We’d have to give the economy CPR to the beat of the Bee Gees to try to resuscitate it.


    Gains of the S&P 500 over the next 10 years



    Gains of the S&P 500 over the next 10 years.jpg




    It’s useful to turn to market history as the economy dances on the brink to see what might be in store for long-term investors. The accompanying graph highlights both the good and bad times. It shows rolling 10-year real total returns for the S&P 500 using monthly data from Robert Shiller, a Yale professor of economics. Each point on the graph represents the average annual return of the index over the following 10 years including dividend reinvestment and adjusting for inflation.

    Investors enjoyed positive real returns roughly 88 per cent of the time from 1881 to June, 2012. There were only a few periods – the other 12 per cent of months – when they suffered losses over the following 10 years. On average, the market generated annual returns of 6.6 per cent over the rolling 10-year periods.

    Broadly speaking, there were five stretches when investors went on to lose money over the following 10 years.

    The first was the span from mid 1908 to late 1912 when returns over the subsequent decade were negative thanks largely to the impact of the First World War.

    Next up was the crash that followed the boom of the 1920s when subsequent 10-year returns turned negative close to the peak in 1929.

    Not only did the bubble burst in 1929 as the economy slid into a depression but the decade was bookended by the start of the Second World War.

    Similarly, there were brief periods of buoyancy in 1936 and 1937 that generated negative returns over the following decade that included the war years.

    The biggest stretch of bad news was dished out to investors who jumped into stocks from early 1964 through early 1973. The following decade generated bruising returns owing to the crash of 1973 and rampant inflation. Those who invested in 1973 also suffered from the 1982 crash after Mr. Volcker pushed rates above 19 per cent in 1981 to quell inflation.

    Most recently, the Internet bubble peaked in 2000 and the market was down 10 years later after the financial crisis of 2008 compounded matters.

    Given the recent surge in inflation, it’s hard to not make comparisons to the 1970s. The recent tech tumble also adds a little whiff of the internet bubble to the mix.

    I’d be more sanguine about the market’s chances if it wasn’t trading at lofty levels as measured by Prof. Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE. (The ratio compares the market’s price to its inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years.)

    The market’s CAPE averaged 17.3 from 1881 through to July, 2022. It hit an all-time high of 44.2 just before the internet bubble crashed. The ratio climbed back up to 38.6 by last November, based on monthly data.

    It ended July near 31.2.

    The market would have to fall about 44 per cent for it to merely return to its average level without a big surge in real earnings, which seems unlikely in recessionary times.

    So, dust off the tunes from the 1970s while hoping inflation wilts in the face of modest rate hikes and the downturn proves to be brief. May your portfolio stay alive until the good times return.

    Norman Rothery, PhD, CFA, is the founder of StingyInvestor.com.
    Warning! some sarcasm, facetious and jovial behavior, satire, irony, dry humor, playful banter and more may or may not be involved in my postings. Please read anything I have written as being said in the most joyful and happy voice you can possibly imagine.

    To whom it may concern: I hereby declare I am not responsible for any of the debts or liabilities incurred by the dim witted one known as Justin Trudeau!

  2. #632
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    I wish I knew a GOOD professional economist so that I could get them drunk around a campfire so they could spill the beans on their personal opinions. I've had very few opportunities in my life to sit down with really successful investors under such circumstances. Only one time actually. One guy I was at a deer camp with about 30ish years ago was a very successful investor and was actually on the board of directors for Bell Canada. Me..I was young, stupid, and broke. If I'd listened to him at the time, I'd be in a lot better shape than I am now.
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  3. #633
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    I still think they're candy coating it to try and slow the bubble pop. Today's society just doesn't cotton up to the idea of ripping that bandaid off and getting it over with. Remember that this is coming from a bank who's main interest right now is not becoming the owner of a massive number of empty houses.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fina...P17&li=AAggNb9

    RBC forecasts historic real estate market correction, including cottages


    The Royal Bank of Canada is forecasting a “historic correction” to Canada’s real estate market after two frenzied years of buying, and cottage country will feel the impact.

    In its latest housing report, RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue says that the bank expects home sales to fall 23 per cent this year and 15 per cent next year, eventually culminating in a 42 per cent drop from the start of 2021. That’s a larger decline than any of the past four national downturns (-33 per cent in 1981–1982, -33 per cent in 1989–1990, -38 per cent in 2008–2009, and -20 per cent in 2016–2018). Along with the drop in sales, the national benchmark price will fall 12 per cent by the second quarter of 2023.

    The drop in sales and prices is a result of rising inflation caused by COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In May, Canada’s inflation rate reached 7.7 per cent, the largest yearly increase in almost four decades.

    To combat rising inflation, the Bank of Canada is raising interest rates, making it more expensive to take out loans, such as mortgages. In July, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate an entire percentage point to 2.5 per cent. In the RBC report, Hogue says he expects the interest rate to continue rising, reaching 3.25 per cent by October.

    Ontario and B.C.’s real estate markets are expected to be hit the hardest, specifically high-priced areas sensitive to interest rates, such as Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria. Over the next year, RBC predicts that property sales in Ontario and B.C. will fall 38 per cent and 45 per cent respectively, with prices dropping 14 per cent.

    The average property price in Ontario has already fallen 7.6 per cent this year, and 4.9 per cent in B.C.

    Within these markets, some of the first properties impacted will be cottages. “With consumer spend, what we expect is the consumers to stop purchasing things that are discretionary and keep buying the necessities. That same logic applies to the housing market. If [people] don’t need a cottage, this is probably not really the best time to go out and look for one,” says Claire Fan, an RBC economist.

    Out of Canada’s cottage country areas, it’s the markets around Toronto and Vancouver that will experience the greatest changes, Fan says.

    “Those markets saw the most uprising in both prices and retail volumes over the course of the pandemic because people were looking for more space,” she says. “But a lot of these markets that saw the biggest price appreciation over the course of the pandemic are the ones that are getting hit the hardest at the moment because larger prices come with pricier mortgages, and those are the most interest-rate sensitive.”

    Areas farther away from high-priced urban centres should remain more stable. And Canada’s other provinces won’t be hit as hard as Ontario and B.C. “We project prices to slip less than 3 per cent in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and between 5 per cent and 8 per cent in the majority of other provinces by the first half of 2023,” Hogue says in the report.

    While none of this is great news for home or cottage buyers, RBC does expect the real estate market correction to end sometime in the first half of 2023. “We’d argue the unfolding downturn should be seen as a welcome cool-down following a two year-long frenzy that put a huge financial burden on many new homeowners and made ownership dreams harder to achieve,” Hogue says.
    I just looked back. This is just recycled news from a couple of weeks ago. Numbers are the same.

    RBC now expects home sales to fall nearly 23% this year and 15% next year, and national benchmark prices to drop more than 12% from peak to trough by the second quarter of 2023.

    The 42% drop in home sales from the peak in early 2021 will exceed the declines seen in the past four national downturns, Hogue said. In 1981-82 and again in 1989-1990 sales fell 33%; they fell 38% in 2008-09 and 20% in 2016-2018.

    The 12% decline in prices by early 2023 will be the steepest correction in the past five housing downturns, he said.
    Last edited by blacksmithden; 08-04-2022 at 02:27 AM.
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  4. #634
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    It's definitely coming.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/tops...omMaestro=true

    'Head-scratcher:' Economists weigh in on Canada's surprise job loss


    Canada’s July jobs reading caught economists by surprise with a loss of 30,600 positions rather than an expected gain of 15,000 for the month.

    Despite the negative reading coming on the heels of a still larger decline in June, the unemployment rate stuck to its historic low of 4.9 per cent based, according to Statistics Canada, on a drop in Canada’s participation rate.

    After digesting July’s numbers, economists appear to have taken away two narratives:

    The Bank of Canada won’t be deterred from raising rates further, and possibly with another bigger than normal hike.
    July’s jobs reading hints at an economy that is beginning to “lose steam.”
    Here are the economists in their own words:

    Rishi Sondhi, TD Economics
    “That’s two in a row in terms of weak headline jobs prints, and employment has now averaged an 11k decline over the past three months. This is consistent with our view that economic growth will soften in the second half of the year. The details skewed to the softer end in July, as full-time employment accounted for a larger share of the overall jobs decline than in June, and hours worked also fell. The latter is particularly notable as it could signal a soft print for monthly GDP, following flat growth in May and a sub-trend gain in June (based on Statcan’s preliminary estimate).”

    Stephen Brown, Capital Economics
    “The second consecutive monthly decline in employment will raise a few eyebrows at the Bank of Canada but, with the unemployment rate unchanged at a record low and wage growth still strong, we doubt it will prevent the Bank from hiking its policy rate by a further 100 bp at the next two meetings…. While the increase in average hourly earnings was a little lower than we expected, at 0.4% m/m, that gain is still too high for comfort in terms of meeting the Bank’s 2% CPI inflation target. At the margin, the July LFS may tilt the odds a bit toward a 50 bp rate hike in September rather than a 75 bp one, but we doubt it will be the deciding factor.”

    Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics
    “The Canadian employment figures were somewhat of a head-scratcher again in July, with employment falling for a second consecutive month but the unemployment rate remaining historically low. The 31K decline in jobs came against consensus expectations for a 15K gain, and added to the 43K decline in the prior month. However, a two-tick decline in the participation rate meant that the jobless rate remained at 4.9%. Job losses were strangely concentrated in the services sector, including wholesale & retail, education and health. With some of those sectors reporting high vacancy rates, labour supply rather than demand appears to be the main issue. That said, the major difference between today’s report and last month’s is that wage growth unexpectedly decelerated (to 5.4% y/y from 5.6% and against consensus expectations for 5.9%) although we always caution that the LFS wage series is extremely volatile month/month. While today’s figures muddy the waters further for policymakers, the Bank of Canada will likely focus on the historic low unemployment rate and still strong wage growth to justify another non-standard rate hike at its next meeting.”

    Carrie Freeston, RBC Economics
    “In the months ahead we will begin to see the economy lose steam. We are already observing jobless claims rising South of the border, as U.S. labour demand begins to cool. Canada will not be far behind. With the Bank of Canada having raised the overnight rate by 225 basis points (to 2.5%) since March, and at least another 75 basis points slated for the fall, inflation pressures will ease. And labour markets are expected to cool. Our forecast calls for the unemployment rate to begin to trend higher in the coming months and into 2023.”

    Douglas Porter, BMO Economics
    “Canada’s job market is clearly losing momentum in a hurry, likely due to both a marked cooling in the broader economy but also because a lack of available workers. The downward drift in the participation rate, especially for the 15-64 group, is worth watching closely, with the potential to tighten the labour market further. For the Bank of Canada, the takeaway will be that while growth is clearly cooling, conditions remain drum-tight and wages are stirring. We believe this backdrop is consistent with another rate hike at the September meeting, but of a less aggressive nature than the mega 100 bp move in July. We look for a 50 bp hike at that time.”

    Marc Desormeaux, Desjardins Economics
    “July’s data were well below the consensus projections, and as such shaved our call for Q3‑2022 real Canadian GDP growth to just below 1% (q/q saar). Decelerating wage gains suggest that some progress has been made in the fight against inflation, but the rate of hourly earnings growth continues to track prices closely. Accordingly, while we think inflation may have peaked and have noted previously that the Canadian economy is historically sensitive to interest rate increases, we believe the Bank of Canada will put more weight on the extremely tight labour market and raise rates by 50 bps at its September meeting.”
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  5. #635
    Senior Member Camo tung's Avatar
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    The job loss wasn't a surprise to anyone but the "experts" that remain out of touch on pretty much everything important right now in Canadian's lives.
    "It is an absolute truism that law-abiding, armed citizens pose no threat to other law-abiding citizens."

    Ammo, camo and things that go "blammo".

  6. #636
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Camo tung View Post
    The job loss wasn't a surprise to anyone but the "experts" that remain out of touch on pretty much everything important right now in Canadian's lives.
    The surprise was that Stats Can didn't spin doctor the number up to a point where it made Turd and Freeloader look good.
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  7. #637
    Senior Member Camo tung's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blacksmithden View Post
    The surprise was that Stats Can didn't spin doctor the number up to a point where it made Turd and Freeloader look good.
    I think a lot of people were tipped off ahead of time and that brought rain down upon the clown's parade.
    "It is an absolute truism that law-abiding, armed citizens pose no threat to other law-abiding citizens."

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  8. #638
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    I still think food and natural gas companies are going to be where it's at between now and next summer.


    PARIS (AP) — French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne warned Friday that France is facing the “most severe drought” ever recorded in the country and announced the activation of a government crisis unit. I wonder if they can make it rain.

    France's going through its most severe drought ever, PM says
    © Provided by The Canadian Press
    France's going through its most severe drought ever, PM says
    Borne said that many areas in France are going through a “historic situation” as the country endures its third heatwave this summer.

    “The exceptional drought we are currently experiencing is depriving many municipalities of water and is a tragedy for our farmers, our ecosystems and biodiversity,” she said in a statement.

    Weather forecasts suggest that the heat, which increases evaporation and water needs, could continue for the next 15 days, possibly making the situation even more worrying, the statement stressed.

    The government’s crisis unit will be in charge of monitoring the situation in the hardest-hit areas and will coordinate measures like bringing drinking water to some places.

    It will also monitor the impact of the drought on France’s energy production, transport infrastructure and agriculture.

    The drought may force French energy giant EDF to cut power production at nuclear plants which use river water to cool reactors.


    France now has 62 regions with restrictions on water usage due to the lack of rain.

    The minister for ecological transition, Christophe Béchu, said during a visit to southeastern France that more than 100 municipalities are not able to provide drinking water to the tap anymore and need to get supplied by truck.

    “The worse the situation is, the more we make drinking water the priority compared to other usages," he said.

    The month of July was marked by a record rainfall deficit in France. With just 9.7 millimeters (0.3 inches) of rain according to national weather agency Meteo France, rainfall was 84 percent down on average figures for the same month over the past three decades.

    Meteo France said July 2022 ranked the second driest month since measurements started in 1958-1959.

    Farmers nationwide are reporting greater difficulties in feeding livestock due to a lack of fresh grass and are noticing a drop in yield, especially in fields which are not irrigated and in crops which require a lot of water like corn.

    The Associated Press
    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/weath...P17&li=AAggNb9
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  9. #639
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    For those who are dabbling in Canacol stock. This guy is a little unnerving to say the least. He says he's going to stop granting new oil/gas explorations licenses. The top dog at Canacol said that they already have enough exploration land to keep them going for at least a few years. The real fear is if he pulls a Castro and just walks in and says "Hey, nice gas/oil wells you have there. Now they're my wells."


    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pe...120000705.html

    Petro Takes Over in Colombia With Fiscal Hurdles at Forefront


    Sun, August 7, 2022 at 6:00 a.m.

    Petro Takes Over in Colombia With Fiscal Hurdles at Forefront
    Andrea Jaramillo
    Sun, August 7, 2022 at 6:00 a.m.
    (Bloomberg) -- Colombia’s first leftist president starts his four-year term on Sunday, inheriting shaky public finances that will make it tough for him to deliver the lavish social programs his supporters expect.

    Gustavo Petro assumes control of an economy with government debt near record levels, forcing him to make some difficult choices between meeting his promises and preventing the fiscal deficit from ballooning out of control.

    In the first big test of Petro’s ability to govern, his finance chief Jose Antonio Ocampo has said he’ll send a tax reform to congress as soon as Monday. The bill will be a gauge of Petro’s support among lawmakers, and will also determine if he’ll be able to boost spending on welfare and infrastructure, or whether a lack of money will derail his plans.

    “The economic situation is not the most conducive to embarking on an ambitious agenda to expand public spending,” said Jose Ignacio Lopez, head of research at Bogota-based investment bank Corficolombiana.

    Petro, 62, defeated a construction magnate in the June presidential election, to become the first leftist to win power in a country that has only ever been run by conservatives and liberals. With his victory, Colombia joins the ranks of nations worldwide that have voted in anti-establishment leaders recently. In Peru, a school teacher from a Marxist party became president last year, while Chile elected a former student protest leader.

    The country’s first Black vice president, Francia Marquez will also be sworn in alongside Petro.

    Petro, an ex-guerrilla and former Mayor of Bogota has pledged to tax big landowners, halt the awarding of oil exploration licenses and to rebuild diplomatic relations with the socialist government of neighboring Venezuela.

    While diplomatic ties between the two nations were severed in 2019 amid a push by Colombia and the US to force out the socialist government of Nicolas Maduro, Petro has vowed to re-establish ties and open the border for commerce. A concert is planned Sunday on a bridge connecting the countries to celebrate improving relations.

    Petro’s election may also shake up relations with Washington in a country that has for decades been the region’s strongest US ally. President Joe Biden and Petro have already spoken by phone and even before the inauguration, the US sent a delegation last month to meet in Bogota in a sign that the US wants to maintain its strong ties with the Andean nation.

    Heads of State including Chile’s Gabriel Boric and Argentina’s Alberto Fernandez are set to attend the swearing in ceremony in Bogota. Maduro couldn’t attend, because outgoing President Ivan Duque says he’s a dictator, and barred him from entering Colombia.

    Tax the Rich

    During the campaign, Petro said he could raise taxes on the rich by enough to both fund social spending and cut debt, but no government in Colombia’s recent history has achieved anything remotely as ambitious as his proposal.

    Petro said that his bill will seek to raise revenue by the equivalent of about 5% of gross domestic product, by eliminating tax breaks and imposing a wealth tax, among other measures.

    Since 1995, the country has passed fourteen tax bills, none of which raised more than 2% of GDP, according to Credicorp Capital Research. The fiscal deficit this year, adjusted to include gasoline subsidies, is forecast to be about 7% of GDP.

    Even after successfully reaching alliances with several parties in congress, Petro will probably manage to raise less than half of the sum he aspired to, Lopez said.

    Incoming finance minister Ocampo said the government may shoot for an initial revenue boost of closer to 2% of GDP, then gradually increase this with measures such as a crackdown on evasion.

    Last year Colombia lost its investment grade credit rating, after mass protests led the government to water down a plan to raise taxes to fund pandemic spending. Government debt dropped slightly in 2021, after reaching a record high of 66% of GDP the previous year.

    On the bright side, the economy will expand 6.9% this year, according to the central bank’s forecast, outpacing Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile, which should improve public finances.

    Another Headache

    Another headache for Petro is the vast sums the nation is now spending on fuel subsidies. Rather than allow gasoline prices to rise in line with crude this year, the Duque government capped the increases.

    At current prices, that will cost the Treasury the equivalent of more than 2.5% this year. Petro can either bite the bullet and gradually allow them to rise, which would be unpopular and would make the highest inflation rate in 23 years even higher. Or he can continue to spend a big chunk of his budget on a subsidy that mainly benefits the wealthiest Colombians.

    The peso is the worst-performing currency among major emerging markets since Petro won the election, and last month reached a record low against the dollar. But his appointment of Ocampo, one of Colombia’s best-known economists, calmed some investors, who took it a signal that he’ll eschew extremism.

    Colombia’s “unsustainable” finances mean that the new government will have to “postpone many of the campaign promises that mean more spending, and give priority to reducing the fiscal deficit,” former Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas wrote in a statement he posted on Twitter.

    Investors are already taking their money out of emerging markets, and Colombia can’t afford to risk a sudden exodus of capital, he wrote.

    Columbia.jpg
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  10. #640
    Senior Member M1917 Enfield's Avatar
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    Well, if Columbia choses to follow Venezuela down the toilet into a socialist version of hell on earth he can expect the same civil unrest and collapse of his economy.

    Socialist countries and their rulers only stay in power until the people get sick of watching their kids and families stave before they finally rise up and return to a capitalist based system of governance.

    Better to be first poor with the chance to rise up and prosper under a capitalist and free market based government with hard work and using your intelligence then to always be dirt poor and never have the chance to rise up under a soul destroying socialist government.
    Warning! some sarcasm, facetious and jovial behavior, satire, irony, dry humor, playful banter and more may or may not be involved in my postings. Please read anything I have written as being said in the most joyful and happy voice you can possibly imagine.

    To whom it may concern: I hereby declare I am not responsible for any of the debts or liabilities incurred by the dim witted one known as Justin Trudeau!

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