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  1. #1
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Conservatives out in front, new poll finds

    2015/10/01
    Canada

    The controversy over the niqab has help shore up public support for the federal Conservatives, pollster Forum Research says.

    With little over two weeks left before Canadians, the Conservatives have jumped out to a “clear lead” in public support, according to new results from polling firm Forum Research.

    The survey of 1,499 Canadian voters has Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s party ahead with 34 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the NDP and 27 per cent support for the Liberals.

    The Greens and Bloc Québécois each drew 5 per cent support, and 1 per cent of respondents said they support “other.”

    Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff attributes the latest bump in Tory fortunes to the party scoring points amid the recent flare up in the controversy over the niqab, the face veil some Muslim women wear.

    Two-thirds (64 per cent) of Canadian voters are opposed to having fully veiled women swear the oath of citizenship, while just over a quarter (26) support it, the poll found.

    Ten per cent don’t know, according to Forum’s results.

    “It appears the Conservatives have scored a palpable hit with their hard line this past week on the niqab,” Bozinoff said in a statement.

    The latest poll results from Forum show an increase in support for the Conservatives from last week’s survey, where the party was at 31 per cent support. The Liberals saw a four percentage point drop in support from 31 per cent last week, and the NDP remained stable at 28 per cent support over the same period.

    In an interview Wednesday, NDP campaign adviser Brad Lavigne said the “substantial” decline in Liberal support since last week shows that party is “bleeding” support to the Conservatives, while the New Democrats are remaining stable.

    The Liberal campaign did not provide a comment for this story.

    Conservative campaign spokesperson Stephen Lecce said in an emailed statement that “Canadians know that this election presents a serious choice between experience and dangerous risk. A choice between our Conservative low-tax, balanced budget plan, and the Liberals’ dangerous approach that will raise taxes on all workers, cancel benefits to families, and (plunge) our country into permanent deficits.”

    Though the poll’s findings are just a snapshot in time, if the same results occurred the night of the Oct. 19 election, the Conservatives would win a minority — 151 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons. The NDP would form the opposition again with 105 seats, the Liberals would seize 76 seats, the Bloc six seats and the Greens one.

    Respondents to the Forum poll were asked which of the federal parties they’re decided on, or leaning toward.

    Bozinoff said the niqab issue “resonates clearly in Quebec” — 79 per cent in that province oppose the niqab during citizenship oaths — and also appeals to the Conservative base, whose characteristics include being older, male, and lower to middle income.

    According to the Forum poll, 56 per cent of respondents agree the niqab oppresses women, 29 per cent disagree, and 15 per cent don’t know.

    Forty-two per cent of respondents said they have positive feelings toward Muslim people, 39 per cent said neither positive nor negative, 18 per cent said negative, and 1 per cent said “don’t know.”

    Earlier this month, the Federal Court of Appeal ruled the Conservative government’s policy banning the wearing of the niqab during citizenship oath ceremony is unlawful.

    The Conservatives are promising that if re-elected they’ll bring forward a law banning the face covering during the oath within 100 days, and plan to seek leave to appeal the Federal Court of Appeal ruling to the Supreme Court.

    During the leaders debate in French last week, Harper expressed his support for the niqab ban, while Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau voiced opposition to the ban. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair said that women should have a right to wear a veil at citizenship ceremonies, but must remove it when they have to identify themselves.

    The Forum poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and 29 and is considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

    The poll also shows the NDP have dropped sharply from their high of 40 per cent voter support on Aug. 23 to Aug. 24, while the Conservatives have climbed steadily from the 23 per cent support they had on that date. During that period support for the Liberals has dropped off three per cent from 30 per cent.

    Bozinoff believes a lot of the NDP support in late August was from progressive voters who “parked” their support with the party, but who, according to Bozinoff, drifted over to the Liberals.

    Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.

    hxxp://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/conservatives-out-in-front-new-poll-finds.html

  2. #2
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    HEY!

    Posting polls is my thing.


  3. #3
    Senior Member Foxer's Avatar
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    Well it's encouraging of course, but moreso because it is yet again another poll that shows the CPC with growth and momentum and the other parties losing steam. This has happened far too much and too long for it to be anything but accurate - the CPC is going up and is not that far from majority territory, and the big question other than will they get a majority or minority is who will be opposition. The ndp decline seems to have stopped (for now). THe libs seem to be weakening a little. As the CPC breaks away and the gab widens and people see that the cpc will likely get a majority, will one of the other parties collapse and the vote rally to the 'most likely' victor? Hard to say - a lot of that depends on what quebec does and you NEVER know what quebec is going to do.

    And the longer the campaign rolls on, the less the 'ditch harper' sentiment seems to have traction, and that will hurt the left in getting out the vote.

    It'll be interesting to see what the polls are saying over the next few days, and if there's a clean and clear breakaway for the cpc or a crash for one of the other parties.

  4. #4
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    So Foxer it's still too early for any kind of seat predictions like the ones you made in pervious elections?
    CSSA

  5. #5
    Senior Member Foxer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billythreefeathers View Post
    So Foxer it's still too early for any kind of seat predictions like the ones you made in pervious elections?
    We're not getting the data we normally do. There's very little info on the undecided (forum didn't post any either), as we discussed earlier it seems as tho the early polls weren't serious but rather were 'modified' to make one party or another look good and we're only now seeing pollsters agreeing with each other, and there's a lot of volitility and the electorate hasn't moved yet. Things are happening but there's just no clear picture forming from the data we have as far as realistic seat projections.

    But i'll go out on a bit of a limb. I'm watching the momentum build (and it could change for any number of reasons before election day) and i'm looking at the campaigns and peoples' reactions and what the polls ARE telling us - and my impression right now is that if things continue on this path based on what happens HISTORICALLY i would expect a cpc majority with about 7 seats. I think the CPC will do better in bc than the polls suggest, and I think they'll do better in ontario than the polls suggest, and based on what we know it looks like they'll at least hold their seats in quebec.

    But i'd also say that's probably plus or minus about 15 seats and while trends are beginning to develop, they're just starting to show and there's no way to tell if they're sustainable. And the TTP could completely alter this campaign entirely if it's signed next week, and nobody can predict how that would go.

    There's one more tv debate tomorrow - it's a french one. There was supposed to be one on the 8th that would NOT include harper but I can't find any verification if it's going to happen or not.

    I would expect tomorrow's debate to be very important - the ndp and libs will be fighting for quebec and you can bet the whole niquab thing will pop up again and that's helped the cpc.

    I would guess that we'll have a much better idea of what's going to happen about mid next week. And families tend to talk a lot over thanksgiving - that will probably also result in some movement. A smart party would be making sure that they get in the papers friday or saturday in a positive way so that they can be the subject of discussion over the turkey.

    But there you go - my first preliminary guesstimate. I think the CPC will probably continue to build momentum, and will finish with about 38 percent of the vote, and will take a slim majority. I will further predict that the NDP manages a bounce back in quebec and that the libs finish a close third. But predicting quebec accurately is all but impossible so we'll have to see.

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    Can the CPC legally sign the TPP during an election?

    Obviously the can negotiate it as they are now doing.

    Wouldn't they only be allowed to agree to terms of the deal but have to wait until the new session to formally sign/ratify?

  8. #7
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    can't see them signing it,, the left media would be in a frenzy stirring up lots of decent

    it's been going on for 10years?? so a few more months wouldn't break the deal,,
    CSSA

  9. #8
    Senior Member DanN's Avatar
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    It sounds like signing it right now, right or not, would be political suicide. The last thing Harper wants to do is spend the rest of his campaign defending the decision just as he appears to building momentum.
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  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billythreefeathers View Post
    can't see them signing it,, the left media would be in a frenzy stirring up lots of decent

    it's been going on for 10years?? so a few more months wouldn't break the deal,,
    If there's no deal in Atlanta this week, there won't likely be any new negotiations until 2017 after the new US president is sworn in.

    The US and New Zealand who are also heading into an election are pushing hard for a deal by Sunday.

  11. #10
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulchaser View Post
    If there's no deal in Atlanta this week, there won't likely be any new negotiations until 2017 after the new US president is sworn in.

    The US and New Zealand who are also heading into an election are pushing hard for a deal by Sunday.
    well they'll be in the same boat as we're in now,, and so what if there is no deal till 2017

    I just don't think it would be a politically wise move for PM Harper
    CSSA

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