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  1. #1
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    A new 338Canada projection has the Tories safely in majority territory

    A new 338Canada projection has the Tories safely in majority territory

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/polit...cid=spartanntp

    Since Ottawa was hit by the SNC-Lavalin storm in early February, a staggering number of opinion polls have been conducted. Data nerds like myself are not complaining, but so many polls taken when public opinion is in flux creates a fair amount of noise—which may lead to considerable confusion for voters.

    Case in point: polls in the past month alone have ranged from 13 point CPC leads (Angus Reid, Léger) to a 4 point LPC lead (Innovative Research), with other polling firms somewhere in the middle (namely: Ipsos, Nanos and Campaign Research). Obviously, not all these polls can be correct in the same time frame, but it’s by taking them all together and careful weighing the regional breakdowns that we can hope to reduce the noise and see the actual data.
    Here are the federal polls published since the end of 2018:

    © Used with permission of / © Rogers Media Inc. 2019.

    The complete list of all federal polls can be found on this page.

    To calculate the following 338 projection, polls are carefully weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down per region of the country. The 338 model also includes demographic data from the Canadian census in its simulations to link the movement of public opinion per electoral district. Historical data of past elections is also taken consideration in the model. Details of the 338 methodology and past performance of the model can be found here.
    Readers should know that this is not a prediction of the outcome of the next election, but rather a projection of where the major parties stand according to current data. When/if the data changes, the projection then adjusts itself.

    With 169 days until the federal election, here is the 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019.

    Popular Vote Projection
    The Conservative Party of Canada leads the way with an average support of 36.6 per cent nationally (the projection 95 per cent confidence intervals are indicated on the graph below). Although federal voting intentions appeared to show a tightening gap between the CPC and LPC in the past weeks (coinciding with the SNC-Lavalin saga fading out of the news cycle), the latest polls published in the past days have propelled the CPC alone in first place.

    © Used with permission of / © Rogers Media Inc. 2019.

    The Liberal Party of Canada falls to an average of 29.9 per cent, its lowest level since the 338 tracking began in October 2018. The latest data made available indicates an erosion of support for the LPC from coast to coast—even in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which both appeared to be Liberal strongholds only months ago.

    Even with the Liberals sliding in voting intentions, the New Democratic Party still can’t seem to get any traction. Its average support stands at 15.9 per cent—a level that would most likely mean that many current NDP districts could change colour next fall.
    The Green Party of Canada continues its slow, but steady ascent in voting intentions with an average of 9.7 per cent this week. However, as we will see below, this modest hike in public support does not necessarily translate into significant gains in the seat projection.
    The Bloc québécois stands at an average 4.7 per cent (20.2 per cent in Quebec) and the People’s Party of Canada, 2.9 per cent.
    How do these voting intentions translate into seats? Let’s crunch the numbers.

    Seat Projection

    With such levels of public support, the Conservatives now hold a commanding lead over their rivals in the seat projection. On average, the CPC wins 174 seats per simulation—just above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.

    READ MORE AT THE LINK
    CSSA

  2. #2
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    Just need Justin to keep talking,,,
    CSSA

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  4. #3
    Senior Member FALover's Avatar
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    ...only if Canadians vote en-masse to turf the little puke. Numbers like that breed complacency.
    cookin' up a batch of fun (and pasta)

    Can I Hear A Ramen!!!

  5. #4
    Senior Member Camo tung's Avatar
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    Nothing is "safe", there is still an incredible amount of stupid that live and walk among us...and vote red.
    "It is an absolute truism that law-abiding, armed citizens pose no threat to other law-abiding citizens."

    Ammo, camo and things that go "blammo".

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  7. #5
    The Gunsmithing Moderator blacksmithden's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Camo tung View Post
    Nothing is "safe", there is still an incredible amount of stupid that live and walk among us...and vote red.
    Agreed. The pollsters have had it wrong numerous times over the past few years. I'll relax when I see Scheer in the PM's office and Turd unemployed. I'm not holding my breath on the unemployed part. I'm sure he'll win his seat. Him being turfed as leader and sitting on a back bench on the other side of parliament will do.
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    The High River Gun Grab - NEVER FORGET !!!!
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  9. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Camo tung View Post
    Nothing is "safe", there is still an incredible amount of stupid that live and walk among us...and vote red.
    Very true.

    But Trudeau did just appoint the guy who ran Ignatieff's 2011 election war room, an election that saw the Liberals drop to 34 seats, to run the Liberals 2019 campaign.....
    Justin 2015

    Justout 2019

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  11. #7
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Camo tung View Post
    Nothing is "safe", there is still an incredible amount of stupid that live and walk among us...and vote red.
    I had a Conservative canvasser at my door earlier today and after I said I was a "sure thing conservative voter" we had a short conversation about what he expected the conservatives to do, and what I expected the conservatives to do, and my observations of my current Liberal MP.

    He said I was an "educated" voter.

    I said educated wasn't the right word, and I continued that I wasn't informed either. I felt that calling me a 'biased witness' was accurate.

    He countered that he'd been talking to people all week, and he was sticking with "educated" voter, and asked if I'd like a lawn sign after the writ was dropped. You betcha.

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  13. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeBob View Post
    I had a Conservative canvasser at my door earlier today and after I said I was a "sure thing conservative voter" we had a short conversation about what he expected the conservatives to do, and what I expected the conservatives to do, and my observations of my current Liberal MP.

    He said I was an "educated" voter.

    I said educated wasn't the right word, and I continued that I wasn't informed either. I felt that calling me a 'biased witness' was accurate.

    He countered that he'd been talking to people all week, and he was sticking with "educated" voter, and asked if I'd like a lawn sign after the writ was dropped. You betcha.
    Clearly the CPC needs to establish sound principles. Not just feelings.
    "I've always felt the nine most terrifying words in the English language are I'm from the government and I'm here to help." - Ronald Reagan
    Member NRA & CCFR

  14. #9
    Senior Member Grimlock's Avatar
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    4 seats 6 months out is not what I would call safe.

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  16. #10
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grimlock View Post
    4 seats 6 months out is not what I would call safe.
    [humor]


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