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  1. #1
    Senior Member Waterloomike's Avatar
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    The Hundred Year Flood

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/


    You may not be interested in math, but math is interested in you.

    To determine a floodplain boundary, we first identify a “storm event” that concerns us. We use historical rainfall data and some statistical magic to calculate the worst storm event a place is likely to experience in a 100-year time span, probabilistically speaking, and we call that the “100-year storm.” There’s a push in the field to quit calling it that, because it confuses the muggles, so now we often say something like “the storm which has a 1% chance of happening in any given year.” Then we take that rainfall data, judiciously apply more math, and turn it into a flow rate in a river. Then we do hydraulics (more math) to determine how deep the river will have to be to carry that much water, and we draw a line on a map. […]

    Let’s quickly walk through this. The chance of flooding, P(F), is 1%, or 0.01. The chance of not flooding, which we notate P(F’), is 100%-1%, or 99%, or 0.99. To see the chance you don’t flood two years in a row, you would have to “not-flood” the first year, and then “not-flood” the second year, so you multiply the two probabilities together, and get 0.9801. The chance of “not-flooding” 30 years in a row is calculated by multiplying the chance of not flooding with itself, over and over, 30 times, which is a power relationship. P(F’)³⁰. That’s 0.7397 chance of 30 consecutive years of no flood, which means a 26% chance of at least one flood.

    And then your mortgage broker doesn’t give you your thirty-year fixed rate loan, because a 26% chance of a disaster is a big chance, when we’re talking about disasters.

    Now let’s talk about a bigger, nastier disaster than a flood.
    Now let’s talk about a bigger, nastier disaster than a flood.

    (Click above)


    Allow our Rightful Liberty or .....

  2. The Following 2 Users Like This Post By Waterloomike

    Rory McCanuck (12-06-2019), Swingerguy (12-07-2019)

  3. #2
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    Since our 1678 benchmark, Russia has had a two world wars, a civil war, a revolution, and at least half a dozen uprisings, depending on how you want to count them. Depending on when you start the clock, France had a 30-year war, a seven-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, that Napoleon thing, and a couple of world wars tacked on the end.
    Ha... I tell people around here:

    Poland/Warsaw (a short list... too many wars and political changes to count. Something happened like every 5 minutes here.)
    -1683: Polish Hussar's beat the invading Ottoman's at the Gates of Vienna
    -1795: 3-way Partitioning of Poland (Prussia/Russia/Austria-Hungry)
    -1830-1: November Uprising
    -1863: January Uprising
    -1914-1918: WW1
    -1920: Red Army Tries to Invade
    -1939: Nazis and Soviets Invade, Occupation and holocaust
    -1943: Warsaw Ghetto Uprising
    -1944: Warsaw Uprising
    -1945: Soviets Invade and 45 years of communism begins

    "hey Marek, what time is it"

    "Uprising o'clock"
    Successfully escaped this crazy quack s***hole country ALIVE - 12/26/2017!!!

    Give your family tree a good shake and see if you have any dual citizenship that you can use to GTFO of this crazy quack s***hole country!

  4. The Following User Liked This Post By joe6167

    Waterloomike (12-07-2019)

  5. #3
    Senior Member
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    Successfully escaped this crazy quack s***hole country ALIVE - 12/26/2017!!!

    Give your family tree a good shake and see if you have any dual citizenship that you can use to GTFO of this crazy quack s***hole country!

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