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  1. #21
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blacksmithden View Post
    I dont know what is more disturbing. The odds of winning or the fact that you knew how to figure that out. Why arent you running the world yet Bob ? Lol.
    Thank you for the kind words, but I think

    Quote Originally Posted by RangeBob
    Gun Giveaway odds : 1 in 4,282,300,626,240 [n!/(n-r)! ; order important; n = 338 seats, r = 5 parties]
    makes at least 2 errors
    • it assumes that each party gets at least 1 seat (i.e. it misses 0 (zero))
    • I think it's the odds of each riding getting particular combinations, rather than the total by party which is all we care about.


    And of course it ignores that the Bloc can have 78 seats max.

    I'm more confident with this

    Code:
    		DecimalFormat formatter = new DecimalFormat("#,###");
    		int count = 0;
    		for (int con = 0; con <= 338; con++) {
    			System.out.print(".");
    			for (int lib = 0; lib <= 338; lib ++) {
    				int subtotal2 = con + lib;
    				if (subtotal2 > 338) break;
    				for (int ndp = 0; ndp <= 338; ndp ++) {
    					int subtotal3 = subtotal2 + ndp;
    					if (subtotal3 > 338) break;
    					for (int bloc = 0; bloc <= 78; bloc ++) { //78 Seats in Quebec
    						int subtotal4 = subtotal3 + bloc;
    						if (subtotal4 > 338) break;
    						for (int green = 0; green <= 338; green ++) {
    							int total = subtotal4 + green;
    							if (total == 338) count++;
    							if (total > 338) break;
    						}
    					}
    				}
    			}
    		}
    		System.out.println("");
    		System.out.println("Gun Giveaway odds : " + formatter.format(count));
    which returns

    Gun Giveaway odds : 365,245,440

  2. #22
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Or, if y'all prefer

    338CanadaFederalSeatProjection20210820.jpg

    Code:
    		DecimalFormat formatter = new DecimalFormat("#,###");
    		int count = 0;
    		int con_min = 115 - 29;
    		int con_max = 115 + 29;
    		for (int con = con_min; con <= con_max; con++) {
    			System.out.print(".");
    			int lib_min = 159 - 38;
    			int lib_max = 159 + 38;
    			for (int lib = lib_min; lib <= lib_max; lib ++) {
    				int subtotal2 = con + lib;
    				if (subtotal2 > 338) break;
    				int ndp_min = 35 - 15;
    				int ndp_max = 35 + 15;
    				for (int ndp = ndp_min; ndp <= ndp_max; ndp ++) {
    					int subtotal3 = subtotal2 + ndp;
    					if (subtotal3 > 338) break;
    					int bloc_min = 25 - 10;
    					int bloc_max = 25 + 10;
    					for (int bloc = bloc_min ; bloc <= bloc_max; bloc ++) { //78 Seats in Quebec
    						int subtotal4 = subtotal3 + bloc;
    						if (subtotal4 > 338) break;
    						int green_min = 2 - 1;
    						int green_max = 2 + 1;
    						for (int green = green_min; green <= green_max; green ++) {
    							int subtotal5 = subtotal4 + green;
    							if (subtotal5 > 338) break;
    							int ppc_min = 0;
    							int ppc_max = 1;
    							for (int ppc = ppc_min; ppc <= ppc_max; ppc ++) {
    								int total = subtotal5 + ppc;
    								if (total == 338) count++;
    								if (total > 338) break;
    							}
    						}
    					}
    				}
    			}
    		}
    		System.out.println("");
    		System.out.println("Gun Giveaway odds : " + formatter.format(count));
    Gun Giveaway odds : 220,339
    Last edited by RangeBob; 08-20-2021 at 12:28 PM. Reason: missing attachment

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billythreefeathers View Post
    NDP with 28,, seems a bit high,, Im thinking the Bloc will take some from them in Quebec

    Oh Picture to follow
    NDP is very popular in the Halifax Regional Municipality.

    Esp since some in the city are voting for rent control, which is a big problem in the city.

  4. #24
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Social Misfit View Post
    NDP is very popular in the Halifax Regional Municipality.

    Esp since some in the city are voting for rent control, which is a big problem in the city.
    rent control = Im not renting my property

  5. The Following User Liked This Post By Billythreefeathers

    Grimlock (08-20-2021)

  6. #25
    Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeBob View Post
    6/49 odds : 1 in 13, 983, 816 [n! / (r! (n-r)!) ; order not important; n = 49, r = 6]

    Gun Giveaway odds : 1 in 4,282,300,626,240 [n!/(n-r)! ; order important; n = 338 seats, r = 5 parties]
    That’s more permutations than odds, to get pedantic. It neglects the closet to the actual factor. Which is then more 1 in x, being thread entries. But if you hit exactly, maybe you can reach into Billy3’s pocket like with Barker on Price is right.

  7. #26
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SIR VEYOR View Post
    That’s more permutations than odds, to get pedantic. It neglects the closet to the actual factor. Which is then more 1 in x, being thread entries. But if you hit exactly, maybe you can reach into Billy3’s pocket like with Barker on Price is right.
    RangeBob is OUT,, too many algorithms

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    Camo tung (08-20-2021)

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billythreefeathers View Post
    rent control = Im not renting my property
    Halifax is turning into like BC. My crappy apartment I moved out of was like 675, its now well over 1100$.

    So many people will flock to the NDP because they want rent control. So I can see Halifax and areas getting NDP votes based on that.. Forget how many federal seats in NS. I expect at least like 4 from NS.

  10. #28
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    I'm going to be hopeful. If they come up short and considering how the NDP has propped up the libs I think they might end up forming a coalition to keep the "Evil Conservatives" from rolling back C-71 and other restrictions on scary black firearms.

    Cons: 143
    Lib: 135
    NDP: 34
    Bloc: 23
    Green: 2
    PPC: 1

  11. #29
    Senior Member RangeBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billythreefeathers View Post
    RangeBob is OUT
    I'm pretty sure I was never IN.
    Nonetheless,

  12. #30
    Canadian ForcesMember Billythreefeathers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthfall View Post
    I'm going to be hopeful. If they come up short and considering how the NDP has propped up the libs I think they might end up forming a coalition to keep the "Evil Conservatives" from rolling back C-71 and other restrictions on scary black firearms.

    Cons: 143
    Lib: 135
    NDP: 34
    Bloc: 23
    Green: 2
    PPC: 1
    PPC = ZERO,, give that one to the greens

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