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  1. #1
    Ex Coelis Canuck's Avatar
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    Syria ready for US attack; has been ready for years.

    Syria ready for U.S. attack, been expecting one for years: Nahlah Ayed

    Assad long felt himself to be in America's gunsights

    By Nahlah Ayed, CBC News

    Posted: Aug 30, 2013 5:15 AM ET

    Last Updated: Aug 31, 2013 5:23 PM ET


    A UN chemical weapons expert, wearing a gas mask, holds a plastic bag containing samples from one of the sites of an alleged chemical weapons attack in the Ain Tarma neighbourhood of Damascus August 29. (Reuters)

    About The Author
    Nahlah Ayed is a London-based correspondent for CBC News and its flagship program The National. She has been reporting regularly from abroad while also covering Canada's foreign policy. She spent seven years reporting from the Middle East and returned there for several months in the spring of 2013 and in January 2011 to cover the wave of popular uprisings in the Arab world. Prior to joining CBC, Ayed was a parliamentary reporter for The Canadian Press.



    Bashar al-Assad's regime has been shadow boxing with the prospect of a U.S.-led attack for years. That one is now being threatened must seem to Assad like proof he was right all along.
    In many conversations with Syrian officials over the years, it was a common refrain after Iraq's Saddam Hussein was removed in the 2003 invasion that Assad might be next.
    But these officials always insisted that should the U.S. strike, Damascus would be different. It would never succumb to foreign powers, or become a Western "puppet" as others have, they said. Not when it defines itself as a wellspring of resistance to the West and Israel.
    So now, as Barack Obama threatens some kind of military strike in response to Syria's apparent use of chemical weapons last week, it is hardly a surprise that Damascus is promising to fight back in some unspecified way.
    "We have the means to defend ourselves and we will surprise everyone," Walid Muallem, Syria's foreign minister, said in a news conference this week. "We will defend ourselves using all means available. I don't want to say more than that."

    Syrian refugees sit at a new refugee camp in the outskirts of the city of Arbil in Iraq's Kurdistan region. Millions have fled the country in the past two years.
    (Azad Lashkari / Reuters)

    It is worth noting, though, that save for the past two and a half years of a brutal suppression of opposing rebels and its own citizens Syria has not engaged in any kind of serious combat for many years despite its sizeable military.
    It had only rarely even embarked on a skirmish even when attacked by Israeli warplanes in 2007 (on what Israel suspected was a nuclear facility). Despite its vigorous anti-Israel rhetoric, Syria failed to respond.
    But with a long history of enmity against the U.S., Syria will almost certainly feel compelled to strike back, if only symbolically.
    "The Syrians may calculate that they can launch a limited attack, just like the Americans are calculating that they can launch a limited attack," explains Malcolm Chalmers, of the RUSI Institute for Defence and Security in London.
    "But attacks are really limited if the other guy doesn't respond. Once the other guy responds you get into a ladder of escalation, which is inherently unpredictable."
    In short, a chain reaction. Which in the combustible Middle East could quickly destabilize an entire region.
    Has allies

    But should it choose to strike back, Syria needn't do it alone. It has a short but potent list of allies, including Russia and Iran, who have also warned repeatedly against a Western military attack.
    They're not likely to enter a conflict if the U.S. strike is as specific and directed as some have suggested.

    Assad may have allies, but does Barack Obama? British PM David Cameron lost a vote in Parliament on Thursday that would have authorized the U.K. to take action against Syria for the use of chemical agents.
    (Reuters)

    But Syria is also close to Hezbollah, the well-armed Shia group that fought a conflict with Israel in 2006. The question many are asking today is could that group seek revenge on behalf of Syria by engaging Israel again?
    Lebanese observers doubt it. Hezbollah is in an awkward position in Lebanon given that its men have openly fought alongside Syrian troops against the mainly Sunni rebels taking on Assad.
    Lebanon is also divided between pro- and anti-Assad factions, and that tension, which recently evolved to include large bombs apparently aimed at each other, threatens the country's stability.
    But having aligned itself with the Syrian regime, Hezbollah may ultimately feel compelled to act.
    All this suggests that the risks of even a pinpoint, short-lived U.S. strike may not be much different from those that prevented the West from intervening at any earlier point in a conflict that has killed over 100,000 Syrians, by UN estimates, and forced millions to flee.




    Now these risks would also include the possibility of civilian casualties at the hands of Western powers, even elsewhere in the region, not to mention the possibility of aiding those anti-Assad fighters with an Islamist agenda, some affiliated with al-Qaeda, which would subvert the original call for freedom and justice by those initial Syrian protesters.
    The U.S. now appears adamant that a chemical weapons attack cannot go unpunished, and that a strong message must be sent, and as quickly as possible.
    But can the U.S. mete out that punishment for this one instance and expect nothing to change? Should it?
    Ultimately the test is simple: Would the benefits of sending such a message outweigh the many risks?
    At the moment it seems that only one country will have to come up with that answer. While Assad's regime waits for what it has long felt was inevitable.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...ria-assad.html
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes an act of rebellion."
    - George Orwell

  2. #2
    Senior Member Strewth's Avatar
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    Yep, sucky situation all around, if the US doesn't attack does that show that they're weak in the eyes of Hezbollah and such? If they do attack does it solve anything? Other than to make the US more insolvent, har-har.
    Very uneasy world-wide truce on empire building these days, maybe the US should pull back, isolate for a generation, live off of the last of their resources, build up it's military and then take over the world? History written by the victors and all that. What's the outcome of any alternative? Let humanity squabble itself back into the Dark Ages?
    CSSA CCFR

  3. #3
    Go Canucks Go! lone-wolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Canuck View Post
    It had only rarely even embarked on a skirmish even when attacked by Israeli warplanes in 2007 (on what Israel suspected was a nuclear facility). Despite its vigorous anti-Israel rhetoric, Syria failed to respond.
    I find it strange that I find the lack of a response, admirable.
    the wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept

    Aptet aut mori

  4. #4
    Senior Member walperstyle's Avatar
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    What ever happened to those days when people had a proper war, kicked the crap out of the other guy and took all his resources to pay for it?

  5. #5
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    This will be epic if the coalition circumvents the UN council and chair meeting then decides to go in alone and just as the same as Iraq (2nd time) and Libya, and others under the radar.

    The Russians have supplied the greatest and some latest military technology, as with the Chinese, also there's Iran in the shadows.

    Soviet anti-ship missile tech, and anti-air, are the best in the world, developed in the cold war, further refined to date, to counter the u.s. and u.k. defensive and assault capabilities as the soviets had troubles in keeping up with the capital both were funding and throwing into their arsenals. You see the russians possess, the best anti-air, anti-ship, defense evading strike technology and weapons, a cost effective antidote and destroyers of the western weapons, platforms, and such likeness.
    In Syria, they are implemented, russian manned, (chinese are there as well, Iran of course also) so the western coalition, and saudi arab league/brotherhood, deciding this entanglement, will be met with what was never used, yet will definitely be used, if they decide to pull another invasion, we can watch on youtube some u.k. and u.s. naval ships snapped into two pieces and sunk. There are no countermeasures for these soviet missile and missile to torpedo defense evading systems, as all their systems can be launched, augmented, implemented, from land, sea and air, as their designs were/are meant to be as such. They fly faster, farther, and evade all anti missile countermeasures from ships ( i.e. goalkeeper, phalanx,etc, and most from land, i.e. patriot, etc ).

    They have little need for aircraft carriers, destroyers, etc, with these systems online and at the ready, they nearly all can be staged with solid rocket boosters to lengthen the strike distances stages and speed, easily.
    And all system fall under the conventional weapons classification, yet can be fitted with whatever warhead chosen.

  6. #6
    Go Canucks Go! lone-wolf's Avatar
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    All that makes me think of, is drone, cruise missile & stealth bomb strikes first to cripple their antiship/air countermeasures.
    the wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept

    Aptet aut mori

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by lone-wolf View Post
    All that makes me think of, is drone, cruise missile & stealth bomb strikes first to cripple their antiship/air countermeasures.
    How do you think, and whom do you think has and gave the tech to bring down u.s. drones?
    cruise missiles, are no tool, the soviet countermeasures and tech take them out.
    there may only be 1 or two type stealth aircraft that possibly cannot be detected. As with all that technology, there's the counter measures and detection of the current fielded. That's one of the drawbacks of the JSF projects, (beside the tremendous cost's) and development, as soon as they were production and fielded, the russians and chinese had the detection's and countermeasures developed.

    Not only is a bunch of u.s. and u.k. naval ships to be snapped in two and sunk on the bucket list, but additionally, drones and stealth aircraft brought down as well.
    they've been brought down before, and will again.

    None-the less, volley for volley, the home ground advantage with russians and chinese systems fielded and manned, has the ace in the hand, as these units cannot be targeted directly or indirectly as part of intervention strikes against syria, without bringing in these two in enormous involvement. Furthermore, they're better weapons systems.
    Russia, and china both hold veto's in the UN security council, so there's a few more trump cards.

    The U.S. and U.K. both know this entirely, that's an integral and some reason for the delay and building up of side stepping, as they militarily know that they will take serious materiel casualties and losses. The past reasons for attempted blocking of soviet/russian tech to venezuela, Iran, N.korea, china, pakistan, india, the north african (ex. libya).

    For instance, off subject, I wonder what our canadian navy would be like if we decided on the offer from the russians of purchase of some of their submarines for our navy instead of the piece of crap brit garbage we (our citizen taxpayers and military) purchased and got ripped off and screwed. (still paying for broken garbage x2 one can barely go long sea voyage, the other is crippled and needs to be completely overhauled and rebuilt from hitting the sea floor and bending... awsome)

    Back on subject, As your quote, these units cannot be targeted, yet if will have been, there's going to be a serious fight. If not a prelude or opening to a WW3, as has been the hype, though a definite sandbox/playground for the two sides(axis' ?) to field their latest and greatest, so there will be some very interesting surprises and weapons uses.

    Though, with all at hands, hopefully and respectfully the diplomatic and cool heads and hands will conclude and prevail.
    Last edited by ReignCzech; 09-04-2013 at 08:25 PM.

  8. #8
    Go Canucks Go! lone-wolf's Avatar
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    They can throw as many unmanned things at a target they want, only one needs to get through. It'll cost a fortune, but no one will care if no Americans are lost.
    the wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept

    Aptet aut mori

  9. #9
    Senior Member FALover's Avatar
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    Personally I would fight a more unconventional military action. First hijack a cargo ship heading to Syria. Blame it on Somali pirates. Covertly load it with massive amounts of Eastern European explosives. Have it 'rescued' with a generous ransom paid. Sail ship into Tartus harbour close to Russian military naval base and detonate.Co-ordinate the explosion with the arrival of the Admiral Kuznetsov. Blame Russians for explosion of illegal arms aid in contravention of the UN arms embargo. Next, have some "homegrown" al qaeda freedom fighters attack Syrian oil fields. Take out what is left of their income producing oil fields. Economy grinds to a halt, electricity and fuel become limited and keep blaming Russia. Civil upheaval would take Syria either one way or the other. Winner takes the mess left. ................Way too much time on my hands. Time for a beer.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by lone-wolf View Post
    They can throw as many unmanned things at a target they want, only one needs to get through. It'll cost a fortune, but no one will care if no Americans are lost.
    that's the thing with the U.S. and U.K. toys, they are more costly than the russian's and chinese's which additionally have far more numbers of, also lots of stockpiled older tech to throw for use.
    could look like the 'ol swarm of arrows.

    As for the glimmer of whatever issue or hope, etc, of no U.K. and U.S. casualties of personelle and materiel, well that's a western onus, view, and perspective, on the other hand there are the old soviet block and chinese conglomerates ( with Iran sporting a sh!t eating grin ) just twiddling their thumb, rather patiently waiting, to use and show just what they've got, at this stand off. As it's quite known, that already many somewhat allies have been overthrown, but not his one, not for them, it (Syria) will be theirs if need be, it would not be wise to underestimate that Assad hasn't already discussed to be a country state of Russia, China, additionally it's already known of the support of Iran, if need be to keep that country's land mass and resources out of the hands of western european, U.S., israeli, and some arab groups. Furthermore Assad does have well support of population of the Syrian people, with growing numbers publicly and militarily in recruiting.
    Last edited by ReignCzech; 09-05-2013 at 01:27 AM.

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